Browsed by
Category: Referendum

Referendum Day Minus 8: Another tantalising wait for what looks set to be a sensational new poll

Referendum Day Minus 8: Another tantalising wait for what looks set to be a sensational new poll

Comments 0 Comment

The Survation boss Tweets about his Daily Record IndyRef findings Well that was a long day..results of our new #indyref poll Sept 5-9 are just in and they are quite something! @davieclegg will tweet later. — Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) September 10, 2014 This’ll be the first full poll since YouGov had YES in the lead With the referendum now so close and the days running out the head of Survation, Damian Lyons Lowe, has added to the tension with…

Read More Read More

Memo to Mr. Salmond: Don’t now throw it all away like Kinnock did in 1992

Memo to Mr. Salmond: Don’t now throw it all away like Kinnock did in 1992

Comments 0 Comment

Galvanising the NO vote is the biggest danger for YES Suddenly a victory for YES looks possible. Two pollsters suggest that things have moved sharply in its direction and there are just 9 days left. Yesterday in one of a series of radio and TV interviews I was repeatedly asked whether the polls themselves could impact on the result and could I think of an example. The one I chose was Neil Kinnock in 1992. By election day the polls…

Read More Read More

Remember it was the YouGov polling panel that most exaggerated the last “political earthquake” – the Cleggasm in April 2010

Remember it was the YouGov polling panel that most exaggerated the last “political earthquake” – the Cleggasm in April 2010

Comments 0 Comment

Why I am waiting for TNS-BMRB The big problem we have with last night’s IndyRef polling sensation from YouGov is that so far it has not been supported by other firms. Panelbase, which traditionally has shown YES in its most favourable position came out with no change from from its mid-August IndyRef poll – a 4% lead. Given that most of the latest Panelbase fieldwork coincided with YouGov’s latest YES lead poll then it is indeed surprising that it has…

Read More Read More

Unless Salmond can find a way of turning the oldies in the remaining 14 days independence will be lost

Unless Salmond can find a way of turning the oldies in the remaining 14 days independence will be lost

Comments 0 Comment

Scotland’s battle is generational and the oldies will prevail We all know that the older you are the more likely it is that you’ll be on the electoral register and the greater the chance it is that you’ll actually vote. In the chart above, based on data from the latest Survation IndyRef poll, I’ve tried to show how much NO is dependent on the oldies. The chart looks at the percentage of the overall NO vote that is coming from…

Read More Read More

Salmond’s ICM victory in the 2nd IndyRef debate triggers a 2.5% move to YES on Betfair

Salmond’s ICM victory in the 2nd IndyRef debate triggers a 2.5% move to YES on Betfair

Comments 0 Comment

But did punters misinterpret the ICM voting data? Three weeks ago during the first Salmond-Darling TV encounter the first indications that NO was having the best of it came on the Betfair betting exchange where full data on trading is made available instantly and where you are able to track it. In the two hours of the STV hosted confrontation a lot of money was traded and YES moved sharply backwards from the 22% chance position it had reached in…

Read More Read More

Darling versus Salmond – the 2nd leg: Live discussion with regular betting updates

Darling versus Salmond – the 2nd leg: Live discussion with regular betting updates

Comments 0 Comment

#Indyrefdebate Before the STV debate 3 weeks ago YES was rated by punters as 22% chance on Betfair. Now a 13.5% chance — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 #Indyrefdebate At half time punters still make YES a 13.5% chance on Betfair. No change. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 #bbcindyref 30 minutes into the debate and YES remains a 13.5% chance on Betfair. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 As the #Debate opens Betfair punters rate YES's…

Read More Read More

Unless independence campaigners can convince the oldies in the next 3 weeks then YES, surely, is doomed

Unless independence campaigners can convince the oldies in the next 3 weeks then YES, surely, is doomed

Comments 0 Comment

Like in all elections the oldies are crucial A lot has been talked about the gender effect in the September 18th Scottish referendum and today a new Survation poll of pensioners for the Sunday Post highlights the generation battle. Not only are the oldest oldies the most certain to vote they are more than two to one for NO. The charts show the certainty to vote proportions and across the older age ranges as well as their stated voting intentions….

Read More Read More

David Herdson wonders how much we can trust the referendum polls

David Herdson wonders how much we can trust the referendum polls

Comments 0 Comment

From Prof John Curtice's site – WhatScotsThink most recent #indyref poll of polls pic.twitter.com/BVdRwjNQcu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2014 How effective are the pollsters with such a one-off event? Knowledge, information and judgement: the past, present and future of effective prediction.  The problem, as far as the Scottish referendum is concerned, is that all three are badly affected by the paucity of precedent.  There have been referendums before, both in Britain and elsewhere, but all have their drawbacks…

Read More Read More