UKIP down 4 points in a fortnight The latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll has just been published and the numbers have a more familiar ring to them. UKIP is down from the dizzy heights of 19% that they chalked up in the immediate aftermath of their EP14 success. The LDs are up from the miserable 6% they were on at the end of May. But it’s the gap between LAB and CON that really matters and although the blues are…
And Farage sees the biggest negative change since April Of all the different forms of leadership questions the one I prefer is whether poll respondents have a favourable or unfavourable view of different figures. For while it’s possible to think that X is doing his/her job “badly” (YouGov) or the respondent is “dissatisfied” (Ipsos-MORI) you can still have a favourable view of them. That, I’d suggest, is more likely to be a better guide to voting intentions. So I applauded…
Panelbase IndyRef poll for YES Scotland has the gap down to just 4 percent Three days after it was reported that a man in SW London backed an IndyRef NO with £400,000 at 1/4 there’s a new poll which has the gap at just 4% It was commissioned by Yes Scotland. The pollster is the Northumberland-based, Pabelbase, which in the past has produced the best figures for YES. Tonight’s poll is broadly in line with the recent Survation survey that…
ComRes also repeated its regular “Favourability Index.asking “Please indicate whether you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following.†The figures show the percentage replying “favourableâ€, and the net score, “favourable†minus “unfavourableâ€: Prince William 68% +59 The Queen 63% +51 Prince Charles 43% +22 Boris Johnson 41% +13 David Cameron 28% -18 Nigel Farage 26% -18 William Hague 25% -10 George Osborne 19% -25 Ed Miliband 19% -30 Theresa May 16% -22 Nick Clegg 13% -41…
What’s going on in LD-held seats is critical The 6% share for the Lib Dems in today’s YouGov/Sun poll is the lowest the firm has reported since it began its online operation in 2001. The party was just 1% ahead of the Greens. While Opinium, which generally has the worse figures for the yellows has had them at this level before the latest finding will add to the discomfort in the party coming as it does after the appalling performance…
All of us who follow the polls closely know that some firms will be particularly beneficial to one party or another and generally produce some of the worst figures for another party. Now as part of a methodology change the “Polling Observatory” at Manchester University in their latest report has sought to measure this as part of a big change in how they average the polls. A spin off from this is that they’ve sought to estimate the “house effect”…
You can’t draw those big conclusions from recent election polling In a recent post the Indy on Sunday’s John Rentoul had this to say about the EP14 and Newark polling and its implications for GE15. “…By-elections in which a seat fails to change hands may not seem the most exciting of events, but they are important because they allow us to assess the accuracy of opinion polls. Two were carried out in Newark in the final two weeks, one by…
Things stabilising after EP14 & Newark The latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll has just been published and sees the two coalition partners gaining a bit while LAB/UKIP slip back. The effect is to reduce last week’s LAB 10% lead to 4%. Sounds dramatic but actually all changes are within the margin of error. For the LDs and Nick Clegg this poll will come as a huge relief. Last week’s 6% was the lowest for the yellows in a phone poll…