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Survation finds CON to LAB swing of 7.3% with the LDs dropping to just 2% in four key commuter-belt marginals

Survation finds CON to LAB swing of 7.3% with the LDs dropping to just 2% in four key commuter-belt marginals

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One thing’s already established for GE15. We are going to see far more different polling types than anything that has been experienced before at a British general election. We are also seeing a wider range of funders like today’s Survation poll in four key London commuter belt marginals which was commissioned by the RMT union. Clearly the union has funded this for a purpose but the voting questions were asked first using Survation’s normal approach. The seats surveyed by phone…

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A month after the local and Euro elections there is no sign that UKIP support is anything but solid

A month after the local and Euro elections there is no sign that UKIP support is anything but solid

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Ashcroft National Poll, 20-22 June: CON 28%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 17%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) June 23, 2014 So far predictions of its demise have been premature A very large number of people predicted after the May 22nd elections that as we got closer to next May’s general election then UKIP’s totals would start to fade away. Well it is now a month after we were digesting those results and the picture is…

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After a year of edging down LAB is starting to move upwards

After a year of edging down LAB is starting to move upwards

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Today’s YouGov has CON 32/LAB 38/LD 8/UKIP 14 The chart above is based on the YouGov monthly averages for the past year plus, for June, an average of the past 15 polls. As I’ve written many times before there are so many YouGov polls (five or six a week) that looking at averages is the best way of observing the trend. Thankfully the firm is making the calculations and is now publishing them. I used to attempt this task myself!…

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On the Miliband ratings it is the views of the 2010 LD to LAB switchers that matter most

On the Miliband ratings it is the views of the 2010 LD to LAB switchers that matter most

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Why LAB strategists won’t be too worried about EdM’s batch of poor personal numbers One of the big factors that makes analysing this election so different from the past is the amount of data in the public domain from which we can measure significant sub-groups – like those 2010 LD voters who have switched to LAB. As I’ve repeatedly said the LD>LAB switchers represents a bigger shift than the entire increase in the CON vote from 1997 to 2010 and…

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LAB retains 3 percent lead with Ipsos-MORI but one in two voters think EdM should go

LAB retains 3 percent lead with Ipsos-MORI but one in two voters think EdM should go

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LAB had 5% lead with @IpsosMORI with all expressing voting preference but down to 3% with those certain to vote See pic.twitter.com/5GpkJphM65 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2014 Nick Clegg sees best net leader satisfaction change from Ipsos-MORI though starts from low base EdM & Dave both down pic.twitter.com/30U3DbJPIP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2014 REVISION 49% of those in the @IpsosMORI sample say EdM should be replaced before GE15. Amongst LAB voters the figure was 43% — Mike Smithson…

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Trying to call the Scottish Independence Referendum has become a nightmare with so much variation between the pollsters

Trying to call the Scottish Independence Referendum has become a nightmare with so much variation between the pollsters

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One thing’s for sure – NO is not a certainty There’s a new YouGov IndyRef poll out overnght which has, after the exclusion of the DKs, NO with a comfortable 20% lead. This is exactly in line with the average of YouGov IndyRef polls so far this year. This latest survey is in marked contrast to the Panelbase, Survation, and ICM polls of recent days which have all shown a narrowing of the gap. Above is a chart based on…

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The ICM poll for the Guardian is out

The ICM poll for the Guardian is out

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Labour retakes the lead, whilst the Lib Dems hit a record equalling low with ICM. As we can see, there’s not a lot for the three established Westminster parties to cheer about in this poll, whilst Labour will delighted to regain the lead with the Gold Standard of British Polling, both their lead and their share of the vote, isn’t that impressive, by contrast, in June 2009, David Cameron’s Tories were polling 39% and had a 12% lead over Labour….

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The Tory hope that 2010 winners will get a first time incumbency bonus barely registers in the Ashcroft polling

The Tory hope that 2010 winners will get a first time incumbency bonus barely registers in the Ashcroft polling

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Lord Ashcroft May 2014 marginals polling Some MPs will get a bonus but the overall position is mixed One of the great hopes for the Tories is that those MPs who were first elected in 2010 will perform better than the national swing because of what’s become known as “first time incumbency bonus”. To try to test this in his battleground polling Lord Ashcroft asks a two-stage voting intention question. The first is the standard one while the second asks…

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