politicalbetting.com

I understand Osborne opposed Gove move but dire opinion polling presented by Lynton Crosby of MG's standing with teachers forced change. — Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) July 15, 2014 This matches YouGov polling pre-GE2010 and 2014 Just for @MSmithsonPB – proportion of teachers in each constituency in England & Wales, overlaid by Labour targets: pic.twitter.com/bPrwTXDVyf — Election-data (@election_data) July 15, 2014

Turnout filtering might be the key At the excellent PB gathering in Ilkley last night the big topic of conversation was the extraordinary Ashcroft national poll which saw the 2% CON lead of last week become a 7% LAB one. At 4pm each Monday afternoon since the start of May Lord Ashcroft has been publishing his weekly national phone poll. This has been a great addition to the overall polling mix particularly because testing political opinion in this way has…

Read More Read More

So was that the Junkers boost that was? Just a week ago the Ashcroft phone poll recorded a CON lead of 2%. Last Friday Populus had the Tories just 1% behind. Well things look very different today with two polls both having LAB with a margin of 7%. Generally whenever a poll produces figures that are out of the ordinary we wisely say wait to see if this shift is seen in other surveys. Well that’s certainly happened today and…

Read More Read More

Cameron’s currently running just ahead of Kinnock One of the great hopes for the Tories as they face GE2015 with a deficit in the voting intention polls is what happened at GE1992. Then it will be recalled John Major was returned with a majority even though all the polls pointed to a hung parliament. At that election non-voting intention numbers like the leader satisfaction ratings were a better guide to the outcome. Could the same happen at GE2015? What is…

Read More Read More