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Leading psephologist argues that likeability ratings are better predictor of voting behaviour than “best leader” questions

Leading psephologist argues that likeability ratings are better predictor of voting behaviour than “best leader” questions

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Essex Uni psephologist Prof Paul Whiteley argues that EdM not far behind DC on likeability http://t.co/xch2fvo90D pic.twitter.com/1iXsXb3d82 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 9, 2014 On this measure Ed is not far behind One of the issues that the current Ed Miliband issue has brought out is what are the best form of leader ratings. Prof Paul Whiteley, of University of Essex who ran BPIX, posted an interesting article last night suggesting that some of the standard measures like “best leader” might…

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The Saturday night polling news starts to come out and it doesn’t look good for Ed

The Saturday night polling news starts to come out and it doesn’t look good for Ed

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The Saturday rolling poll thread Survation/MoS testing voting intentions with different LAB leaders. Cooper comes off worse – Johnson & Umuna best pic.twitter.com/sfh9m8VNWI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 8, 2014 YouGov/S Times poll has only 34% of LAB voters thinking Ed Miliband is up to the job as party leader — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 8, 2014 Other side of coin is that less than 6 months from GE15 two recent polls, Opinium and Survation have the Tories down in…

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Survation poll for the Mirror showing LAB 4% ahead could take some of the pressure off Ed

Survation poll for the Mirror showing LAB 4% ahead could take some of the pressure off Ed

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UKIP now within just 3% of the Tories Although Survation has become a major part of the UK polling scene since GE10 its standard Westminster voting surveys are only a small part of its output. Today, however, there’s a new poll for the Daily Mirror which could provide some relief for the Ed Miliband camp under siege after a day of leadership speculation. The 4% LAB margin is the biggest in any poll since YouGov recorded a 7% lead nearly…

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Why the GRN voters might not swing back to LAB at GE15 even in the marginals

Why the GRN voters might not swing back to LAB at GE15 even in the marginals

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When pressed on constituency question just 10% switch to red Today’s YouGov of CON 31, LAB 34, LD 6, UKIP 17, GRN 7 highlights the need to analyse what is happening to the GRN vote and what might happen in the key battlegrounds that will decide GE15. As ever the main source of published data is from Lord Ashcroft. The aggregation of a series of constituency polls means that sub-samples can be large enough to draw conclusions with a reasonable…

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Concerns about health and immigration rise as the economy drops to six year low in the Ipsos-MORI issues index

Concerns about health and immigration rise as the economy drops to six year low in the Ipsos-MORI issues index

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Concern about the NHS jumps by 9% in Oct Ipsos-MORI Issues index. Now 2nd only to immigration. pic.twitter.com/1YNbLZ86iL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2014 Concern about the economy drops to lowest level for more than 6 years in latest Ips0s-MORI Issues pic.twitter.com/d6m97umbU9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2014 Concern about immigration moves to 6 year high in latest Ipsos-MORI Issues index pic.twitter.com/jgwkRPyEt8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2014 Ipsos-MORI Issues index has for 40 years regarded as…

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After a series of polls showing the main parties level-pegging today’s YouGov has LAB creeping back into the lead

After a series of polls showing the main parties level-pegging today’s YouGov has LAB creeping back into the lead

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Now a 1% margin is something for the red team to cheer For whatever reason things have not been going well for LAB in the polls over the past week. Only the Populus online poll on Monday showed a lead while Opinium, Ashcroft, ComRes and three successive YouGovs had LAB and CON level-pegging. Of course edging up to a 1% lead, as today, is statistically irrelevant – but this is not about statistics but party morale and pressure, perhaps, on…

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The battle does seem to be getting tighter: Both tonight’s online panel polls have CON & LAB on 33% each

The battle does seem to be getting tighter: Both tonight’s online panel polls have CON & LAB on 33% each

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Tonight's YouGov for S Times sees LAB & CON once again level pegging. CON 33%-1 LAB 33% -1 UKIP 16% +1 LD 7% +1 GRN 6% = — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2014 CON & LAB level pegging in tonight's Opininum poll for Observer Con 33+5 Lab 33-2 Ukip 18+1 LD 6%-3 GRN 4= SNP 4= — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2014 But the big political news.. The big political news tonight on sex lives of party supporters http://t.co/SlJXte7iZD pic.twitter.com/JhBdzktZGt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2014 More headlines…

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The Westminster Big Three: zen-like serenity or zombies in action?

The Westminster Big Three: zen-like serenity or zombies in action?

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pic.twitter.com/jIwcoQCiPR — PolPics (@PolPics) October 25, 2014 How come poor CON/LAB/LD polls are being accepted so readily? Time was when you could be reasonably sure that a party struggling in the polls would lead inevitably to speculation about its leader’s position.  The media would talk about it, backbench MPs would talk about it and cabinet or shadow cabinet members would let their friends talk about it.  What is remarkable about the last few years is that despite unprecedented combined unpopularity…

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