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The first two polls of 2015 pic.twitter.com/fzK2c1eIFp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 6, 2015 The first two pollsters to report at start of 2010 had CON leads of 9% & 10%. At GE10 CON vote lead was 7.3% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 6, 2015 YouGov now follow Survation & ComRes in prompting for UKIP So the the general election year polling begins with LAB on small leads from the online pollsters which poll most often, Populus and YouGov. Not…

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Putting UKIP’s polling into perspective Interesting that the two peaks came after the UKIP success in the Euros and then just after the Douglas Carswell defection. These figures are quite a bit lower than the normal shares for the purples that we see. This is because they are confined to 2010 main party voters only. Balance of support came from OTH or “did not vote”. Secondly they are from the key CON-LAB marginals where you’d expect UKIP to be squeezed…

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Wikimedia How UKIP & the Greens are likely to be squeezed Those who have been actively involved in elections will recognise what is going on in the picture above. As voters arrive at the polling station they are asked by the two ladies with the rosettes (tellers) for their polling number which is printed on their polling cards. These numbers then get taken to local committee rooms where they are keyed into computers which check them against canvas and other…

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The one thing you can say as we enter election year is that there’s no consistent picture I’ve broken the final polls of 2014 into five broad areas for comparison. CON to LAB swing The most important measure and where there’s a huge variation from the Ipsos-MORI 2.65% swing to the TNS-BMRB and Opinium 7.15%. If it was the latter on May 7th then LAB would probably secure an overall majority even if it lost all but a handful of…

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A special column from former ICM polling head, Nick Sparrow Over the last 3 years the British Population Survey has been monitoring people who respond to online surveys and comparing them to the population as a whole, in terms of detailed demographics and attitudinal variables. It is a massive survey involving 6-8,000 face-to-face in home interviews per month. In an article published on the Research-Live web site Steve Abbott describes some of the important findings. Analysis suggests that online survey…

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