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Category: Polls

Labour moves to its best ever position in YouGov’s “blame for cuts” tracker – now just 3% behind

Labour moves to its best ever position in YouGov’s “blame for cuts” tracker – now just 3% behind

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In October 2010 LAB was 30% behind. In the very early days of the coalition and the austerity programme in 2010 I singled out the YouGov “who’s to blame for the cuts” tracker as a good monitor – because placing the blame on the “past lot” has been such a key part of coalition rhetoric. It is one that I have gone back to regularly especially when milestones are reached. Back in October 2010 just 18% blamed “the coalition” and…

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The 1992 experience would be a great precedent for the Tories if polling methodologies had stayed the same

The 1992 experience would be a great precedent for the Tories if polling methodologies had stayed the same

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The big betting decision of GE2015 – can we trust the polls? It’s being reported that the Tories are using John Major’s successful and surprise victory at GE1992 as a model for his party on May 7th. The result from April 1992 will give the blue team hopes of a majority right until the early hours of May 8th 2015. For GE1992 was the election that the pollsters got wrong and led to big changes in the years that followed…

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Why’s the Westminster bubble ignoring the Tory near collapse in England?

Why’s the Westminster bubble ignoring the Tory near collapse in England?

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In 2010 CON 11.4% ahead: Latest Opinium has them 2% behind That’s a massive gap to close in a part of the UK where 96% of the LAB-CON battlegrounds are. To work out swing you look the change in party figures from the last election an divide by 2. So here LAB is up 6.9% with Opinium in England and the Tories down 6.5%. So that makes a swing of 6.7% On UNS this would give LAB enough seats to…

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Three months to go and focus moves to what should be good for LAB – the NHS

Three months to go and focus moves to what should be good for LAB – the NHS

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Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is unique in that those sampled are asked to name the issues without prompting. pic.twitter.com/eVkyN7LlTN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2015 Ipsos-MORI Issues Index: Where the huge jump in concern about the NHS has come from. pic.twitter.com/RDxV18G0Jl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2015 Ipsos-MORI Issus Index. How concern about NHS breaks down amongst different groups pic.twitter.com/ir0PP1pAsu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2015 This polling has been carried out in exactly the same way for…

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The big difference between the UNITE and Lord Ascroft Hallam polls was the latter’s two stage voting question

The big difference between the UNITE and Lord Ascroft Hallam polls was the latter’s two stage voting question

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Response to Ashcroft first question Similar to Survation. The @LordAshcroft Sheffield Hallam poll before the 2nd seat specific question was put. pic.twitter.com/dXFjtA7d4l — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 Second stage when it’s candidates in specific seats The @LordAshcroft Hallam poll after the constituency specific question was put. LD ahead but not by much pic.twitter.com/GxfQ3SMnSO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 The overnight UNITE/Survation Sheffield poll which had LAB with a 9% lead highlights the very different approaches of…

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LAB most seats slips to just a 40% chance making it the best value GE2015 bet

LAB most seats slips to just a 40% chance making it the best value GE2015 bet

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Punters on Betfair exchange pile on CON most seats and LAB slips to a 40% chance pic.twitter.com/cQruKHRokl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 The fundamentals stay with the red team After yesterday’s Lord Ashcroft Scottish polling and last night’s YouGov recording a CON lead the money on the general election betting markets has moved to the Tories. The overall outcome is, of course, still for a hung parliament but CON most seats has now become a firmer favourite on…

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Real worrying thing for LAB about the Ashcroft Scottish polling is that its MPs are not getting any incumbency bonus

Real worrying thing for LAB about the Ashcroft Scottish polling is that its MPs are not getting any incumbency bonus

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Contrast that with the LD-held seats One of the great hopes of the Ashcroft Scottish polling was that it might flag up whether there’d be tactical voting or whether incumbent MPs would get a bonus. Lord A asks two voting questions. The first is a standard one while the latter asked respondents to think specifically about the seat and the candidates who might stand. I wondered whether we’d see an pro-Union tactical voting or whether long-standing LAB MPs would see…

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Details of all 14 seats from the first round of the Lord Ashcroft Scottish polling

Details of all 14 seats from the first round of the Lord Ashcroft Scottish polling

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The only conclusion: Labour is set to get hammered The @LordAshcroft Scottish polling that's just been published is only the first round and covers mainly areas where YES did well in IndyRef — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 The @LordAshcroft Scottish polling pic.twitter.com/j9bZrVFf55 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 pic.twitter.com/AorImxfNSy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 The @LordAshcroft Scottish polling pic.twitter.com/e0G7bWI41O — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 The @LordAshcroft Scottish polling pic.twitter.com/StconhCurk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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