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If uniform swing still has some validity then LAB is holding up reasonably well – but does it?

If uniform swing still has some validity then LAB is holding up reasonably well – but does it?

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From the polling in the first week of the official campaign it is hard to draw any conclusions. See Wiki list pic.twitter.com/kjoEbkEFjs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 7, 2015 Projecting seats numbers: Bottom up or top down? The Easter holidays are over. Now it gets serious. Will one of the main parties end the stalemate and draw clear across a range of pollsters? Hard to say. All the post-debate polling has shown LAB on the same 33%. What has differed…

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Cameron’s view of UKIP voters effectively being just “Tories on holiday” not supported by polling

Cameron’s view of UKIP voters effectively being just “Tories on holiday” not supported by polling

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Nearly 70% didn’t vote Blue in 2010 The Telegraph is leading on a big interview it has with Cameron during which the CON leader made a special appeal to UKIP voters. The report notes:- “In an interview with The Telegraph, the Prime Minister insisted that he has heard the message of frustrated Tory voters “loud and clear” but is now appealing to them to help him “avert the danger of a Labour government”.With one month until the polls open, Mr…

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Easter Monday afternoon polling round-up

Easter Monday afternoon polling round-up

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Latest YouGov Scotland poll. Independence Q: Yes 46% No 48% DK/WNV 6% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2015 Last 2 YouGov Scottish independence polls have have had NO in lead. 8 weeks ago YES led by 5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2015 Pre-debate YouGov Scotland poll just publishedSNP 46% (nc) Lab 29% (+2) Con 16% (-2) LD 3% (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2015 At GE10 YouGov didn't have a poll on Easter Monday –…

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Private UKIP poll has Farage behind in South Thanet

Private UKIP poll has Farage behind in South Thanet

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The Thanet ComRes poll Farage censored via @suttonnick http://t.co/J2ax7nThki pic.twitter.com/bGXW0g0Z9N — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 4, 2015 Last night The Mail on Sunday reported Nigel Farage faced claims of a ‘cover-up’ last night for censoring a poll that suggests he is on course for a humiliating personal defeat in the General Election. The secret Ukip-commissioned poll, leaked to The Mail on Sunday, shows that Farage has fallen behind his Tory opponent in the Kent seat he is contesting. And he is…

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The other story from the latest Ashcroft marginals’ polling – the sharp decline of UKIP

The other story from the latest Ashcroft marginals’ polling – the sharp decline of UKIP

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Like the GE10 LDs UKIP will be squeezed in the big party fights Apart from the problems facing Nick Clegg and the latest on the CON-LD battles a striking feature of the latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling was the decline of UKIP. These are all constituency fights where, with perhaps one possible exception, UKIP was not a contender and what happens – in every single case the purples see a sharpish reduction in their share. The biggest slippage of…

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Labour’s London progress could be masking a bigger trend: the party’s putting on most support where it doesn’t need it

Labour’s London progress could be masking a bigger trend: the party’s putting on most support where it doesn’t need it

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CON up 2 in London YouGov poll, LAB & LD up 1 – UKIP & GRN both down pic.twitter.com/l7YNd4Qi18 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 The latest spate of London polls has been very positive for Labour with vote shares in the capital up 9% or more on 2010. It really does look as though the party is going to do very well there. The only problem is that there aren’t that many CON targets apart from Hendon, Brentford…

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CON retains its TNS 1% lead, encouraging YouGov ratings news for Ed, and the CON spread lead moves up to 14

CON retains its TNS 1% lead, encouraging YouGov ratings news for Ed, and the CON spread lead moves up to 14

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CON retains 1% lead with TNS CON 33% (-) LAB 32% (-) UKIP 16%(-1) LD 8% (+1) GN 5% (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 On range of measures Times Redbox YouGov polling finds significant improvements on last month for EdM pic.twitter.com/4gel4QUBKn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 CON lead on @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 seats markets moves up to 14. Was 9 9 on Sun. pic.twitter.com/xfW3JJ8B0c — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 The second morning of GE2015 TNS, with its new…

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