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If other firms show LAB only retaining 63% of 2010 party voters, like with Ipsos, then the party’s in trouble

If other firms show LAB only retaining 63% of 2010 party voters, like with Ipsos, then the party’s in trouble

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MORI info at last. The main voting split. pic.twitter.com/5qqSfigdwH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 Only 63% of 2010 LAB voters supporting party now according to Ipsos. Other polls have that at 80+ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 The big feature from today’s dramatic Ipsos-MORI poll was that only 63% of 2010 LAB voters said they would still vote you party. This is totally out of line with other recent surveys which generally have had LAB with…

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The Thanet S & Hallam polls fail to move the markets & CON a 75% chance to win most seats

The Thanet S & Hallam polls fail to move the markets & CON a 75% chance to win most seats

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Clegg (1/2) & Farage (8/11) remain favourites with Betfair Sportsbook to win their seats in spite of @LordAshcroft polls having them behind — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 This is a bet on seat distribution not national vote shares One of the big things to remember as we get close is that the final seat totals are not governed by national vote share in some apparently pure manner but on the specific outcomes in 650 separate constituency battles fought…

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ComRes phone poll moves from 4% CON lead to level pegging

ComRes phone poll moves from 4% CON lead to level pegging

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New poll for @DailyMailUK / @itvnews has Conservatives and Labour tied on 35% each, UKIP 11%, LibDems 7%, Greens 6% pic.twitter.com/uCi5STIGyu — Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) April 29, 2015 This is the worst result for the Tories from the firm since the Daily Mail began its GE 2015 polling with ComRes nearly two months ago. The swing is almost the same as with the ComRes marginals polling published earlier. Still to come the usual YouGov. ComRes ends a few days when…

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How voting dynamics are different in the tight CON – LAB battlegrounds compared with the country as a whole

How voting dynamics are different in the tight CON – LAB battlegrounds compared with the country as a whole

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One of the great things about tonight’s ComRes/ITV marginals poll is that it gave us data that we could compare with national polling to see different patterns. The battleground polling was in the 50 CON seats that are most vulnerable to LAB and as the chart shows the biggest group of change voters since GE10, the LD supporters, have a very different profile of current support compared with the applicable comparative national poll. Far fewer of the LDs are sticking…

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ComRes: LAB take 3% lead in the 50 tightest CON-LAB marginals

ComRes: LAB take 3% lead in the 50 tightest CON-LAB marginals

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Latest ComRes / ITV News Battleground poll has studied the fifty most marginal CON-held seats where LAB were second at the last election, and results show that LAB leads CON by three points across these seats. LAB currently stand at 40% in these key battleground seats, with CON on 37%. This represents a swing of 3.5 points from the CON to LAB, and will boost Ed Miliband and his “happy warriors” on the LAB campaign team as they enter the…

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Ipsos-MORI Scotland phone poll has SNP a staggering 34% ahead

Ipsos-MORI Scotland phone poll has SNP a staggering 34% ahead

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How STV is reporting its sensation @IpsosMORI Scottish phone poll pic.twitter.com/WfTCvlEf7z — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 29, 2015 More evidence total victory for SNP in Scotland. Our latest poll for @STV News – SNP 54% (+2), Lab 20 (-4), Cons 17% (+5), LD 5% (+1)! — Ben Page (@benatipsos) April 29, 2015 This could be down to “shy unionists” With the ongoing debate about phone polls versus online ones there’s a new Ipsos Scotland survey for STV which has extraordinary…

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My podcast with Keiran Pedley of Polling Matters + latest YouGov has LAB back in the lead

My podcast with Keiran Pedley of Polling Matters + latest YouGov has LAB back in the lead

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Yesterday I recorded a podcast with the excellent Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley), the professional pollster who runs the Polling Matters website. We covered a lot of issues that are very familiar to PB regulars including comparing betting markets to opinion polls, Lord Ashcroft and regional polling, Scotland and the future of the Liberal Democrats after the election. Also Keiran asked about how PB was set up in the first place more than eleven years ago Meanwhile overnight we have had the…

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If you’ve been seat betting based on the Ashcroft polls then Nuneaton could be the first test

If you’ve been seat betting based on the Ashcroft polls then Nuneaton could be the first test

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Ashcroft polling Nuneaton pic.twitter.com/c91MlK6Rsd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 17, 2015 A look forward to election night The point I’ll be waiting for on the night will be the first LAB-CON marginals to declare. These are the seats that will determine which party comes top and all that could mean in the post-election bantering. Looking at the Press Association expected declaration timings we are not going to get much on these seats before 1am when the Nuneaton result is scheduled….

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