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Category: Polls

Why Sadiq could be quite hard for Zac or any other Tory to beat

Why Sadiq could be quite hard for Zac or any other Tory to beat

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I am deeply humbled that so many Londoners have put their faith in me today. Together, we can change London. pic.twitter.com/COQpcJrU55 — Sadiq Khan MP (@SadiqKhan) September 11, 2015 Just ask Lynton Crosby. Winning the London mayoralty is all about getting your own supporters out to vote in an an election that has struggled in the past to attract turnout levels of more than 40%. In early August there was some interesting pulling from Survation which got very little attention….

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One year ago today we were given a reminder that opinion polls are a snapshot not a prediction

One year ago today we were given a reminder that opinion polls are a snapshot not a prediction

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Latest @Survation / Mail on Sunday poll on the EU and Syria. Has Out/Leave leading via @suttonnick pic.twitter.com/CCpC5LZSFs — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2015 A year ago today The Sunday Times published a YouGov poll that had Yes ahead in the Scottish Independence referendum campaign. In the history of Politicalbetting.com no other opinion poll has generated quite so much comment and reaction. It wasn’t only PBers who reacted to this poll, it led to the three Westminster Unionist parties offering The…

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Revised analysis of YouGov’s LAB selectorate poll has Corbyn with 57% of first preferences

Revised analysis of YouGov’s LAB selectorate poll has Corbyn with 57% of first preferences

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Via @AlbertoNardelli The report in the Times about Corbyn being on 57% with YouGov pic.twitter.com/K28q62af0H — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 14, 2015 The President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, explained in a separate article that they had looked at the polling figures again in the light of the data from the party showing the huge influx of names in the final few days. He goes on:- “..I have taken the support YouGov found in each of these groups and adjusted the…

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By this time next week a large part of Labour’s selectorate will have cast their votes

By this time next week a large part of Labour’s selectorate will have cast their votes

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Time is running out for the ABC (Anbody But Corbyn) campaigners Although it will be just over a month before the result in Labour’s leadership election will be announced the ballot packs go out on Friday. The experience of postal voting is that electors tend not to leave their ballots hanging around and fill them in very quickly. So a week today we must assume that a sizeable proportion of the selectorate will have filled in their ballots and put…

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Good news and some potentially worrying news for the SNP in latest TNS Scotland poll

Good news and some potentially worrying news for the SNP in latest TNS Scotland poll

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Salmond & co should be doing better on the NHS Fewer than 1/3 of Scottish voters sampled by TNS rated the Scottish Government's management of NHS as good pic.twitter.com/MiYFrYMR7u — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2015 But a big 2016 Holyrood result looks on the cards New TNS Scottish poll finds SNP up to 62% in constituency section of next May's Holyrood election pic.twitter.com/R3718Ms0hn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2015

This YouGov polling hits the nail on the head about policies and leadership contenders

This YouGov polling hits the nail on the head about policies and leadership contenders

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https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/629259031253790720/photo/1 Having policies that poll well doesn’t necessarily mean electoral success This supports my long-standing view about the importance of policy positions. They have a part to play but only a part. The quality that voters most look for in a leader is competence – the word that the successful Crosby GE15 campaign used repeatedly. Thanks to Matt Singh (NumberCruncher) for highlighting this. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The Corbyn polling could be the 2015 version of what happened to Hilary Benn in 2007

The Corbyn polling could be the 2015 version of what happened to Hilary Benn in 2007

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Don’t attach too much credence to numbers at this stage There have been only two Labour elections in recent times where there has been polling and we are able to look back and compare the survey numbers with the actual votes received. In 2010, as I’ve reported before, the final YouGov members’ survey taken after the voting had started showed EdM with a 4% lead in this part of the electoral college. David actually won this segment by 8.8%. Three…

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The issues facing Britain: Immigration and NHS down/ Defence-terrorism sharply up

The issues facing Britain: Immigration and NHS down/ Defence-terrorism sharply up

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The July Ipsos MORI Issues index sees declines for immigration & NHS but big increase for defence/terrorism pic.twitter.com/VxHqDcxB6N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2015 Ipsos MORI: The differing view of CON & LAB voters on what they seeas most important issues pic.twitter.com/FGlPnXh8J3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2015 The Ipsos MORI issues index is unique. Sample asked entirely unprompted what they see as key issues. It's regarded as good test of salience — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29,…

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