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The last time Hillary Clinton fought New Hampshire the pollsters did worse than the British ones at GE2015

The last time Hillary Clinton fought New Hampshire the pollsters did worse than the British ones at GE2015

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Many punters lost a lot of money that night One of the great nights on PB was the New Hampshire primary in January 2008. It came a week after the Iowa caucuses where Obama pulled off a significant victory. Interest was intense as one of the two main parties look set to be the first in US history not to select a white man as nominee. Following Iowa the media narrative was all on Obama and the final polls for…

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The pollsters got the big picture at GE2015 absolutely right provided you ignore the rubbish voting intention numbers

The pollsters got the big picture at GE2015 absolutely right provided you ignore the rubbish voting intention numbers

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The polling inquiry should have considered alternatives to standard voting intentions While everybody else has been obsessing about voting intention numbers I’ve been looking at how the pollsters did with their lead rating last May and the big picture is in the chart above. This shows the percentage in each of the samples that gave positive ratings to Mr. Cameron and Mr. Miliband. In the final few days five pollsters asked leader rating questions and the results are featured above….

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New Pew Research finds that none of the WH2016 contenders are inspiring voters and negative reactions are high

New Pew Research finds that none of the WH2016 contenders are inspiring voters and negative reactions are high

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Pew Research How the race has become totally polarised The above chart has just been published by the excellent Pew Research and is in many ways a US equivalent to the “good PM” ratings that we see in the UK. I think these numbers are worrying for both front runners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Hillary doesn’t have the positive levels that her team would be hoping for while for Trump it us the negative findings that are the most…

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Online v Phone at GE2015: Looking at all the polls it’s hard to conclude anything other that the phone ones “won”

Online v Phone at GE2015: Looking at all the polls it’s hard to conclude anything other that the phone ones “won”

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A possible guide to EU referendum polling? As we all know with the final polls there was very little difference between those that carried out their fieldwork by phone and those that did it online. But this was very much out of keeping with what had happened throughout the formal campaign. The chart above illustrates this graphically. 70% of the phone polls had CON leads against just 26% of the online ones. At the same time 56% of the online…

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UK pollsters should follow the firm that created the industry and move on from party vote shares

UK pollsters should follow the firm that created the industry and move on from party vote shares

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Gallup Arguably Gallup has the right approach for the future The screen grab above is from the Election 2016 page of Gallup – the firm that created modern political polling in the 1930s. Its busy with lots of data, analysis and often excellent insights but one thing that you won’t find are voting intention polls. After a lacklustre performance with its voting numbers at WH2012 the firm took the strategic decision to drop that aspect for WH2016 and focus on…

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If GE2015 had gone the way that today’s ICM sample remembered voting EdM would be PM

If GE2015 had gone the way that today’s ICM sample remembered voting EdM would be PM

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The raw data on GE2015 vote in latest ICM poll. The problem continues.. pic.twitter.com/ARwSzJIhAs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Latest ICM phone poll with changes on DecCON 40%+1LAV 35%+1LD 6%-1UKIP 10%= — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Highlighting the challenge for pollsters on the evening before the GE2015 failure investigation reports I will after all be able to attend tomorrow’s big event in London when the investigation into what went wrong with the GE2015 polling reveals its…

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It is a mistake to assume that all polling bias is against the Tories

It is a mistake to assume that all polling bias is against the Tories

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Remember what happened at GE2010 and the last London Mayoral election This week’s polling news is going to be dominated by the publication tomorrow of the inquiry into what went wrong the GE2015 polls when all the firms undershot the Tory share by big margins. Unfortunately I’m at a memorial service tomorrow and won’t be able to attend the big event. In the build up we’ve started seeing some interesting explanations including one which suggests that CON voters are much…

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