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Why LEAVE needs to neutralise PROJECT FEAR if it is to win

Why LEAVE needs to neutralise PROJECT FEAR if it is to win

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Worry about the unknown is a great vote driver In the 2010-2015 period I repeatedly suggested that a good guide to the general election outcome was YouGov’s “who is responsible for the cuts” tracker. Throughout the entire five year period Labourwas blamed more than others and so it turned out to be. For the referendum on June 23rd I have been looking around for another possible tracker and believe I have found one. It is featured in the chart above…

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If there is a “Bradley effect” in the Mayoral race it’ll have a lower impact in London than elsewhere

If there is a “Bradley effect” in the Mayoral race it’ll have a lower impact in London than elsewhere

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There has been a fair bit of talked about a possible “Bradley effect in the London mayoral election on May 5th. This refers to the well observed effect of people telling pollsters that they will support a non-white candidate when in fact they don’t end up doing so. There are two reasons to believe why this might not be significant in the London mayoral election even though the Labour candidate, Sadiq Khan,is a Muslim whose parents emigrated to Britain from…

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Trying to work out who will turn out in the referendum of June 23rd

Trying to work out who will turn out in the referendum of June 23rd

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New study tries to explain why phone and online polls are giving different EUref results As we get closer to the referendum there’s a lot of effort going on to try look at the polling more closely so we don’t end with another GE2015. The results of a Populus/Number Cruncher Politics study on the difference between the online and phone surveys was looked at on Newsnight last night and I’m hoping it will be possible to link to the actual…

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Survation EURef phone poll follows ComRes and has reduced though still clear REMAIN lead

Survation EURef phone poll follows ComRes and has reduced though still clear REMAIN lead

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Survation chart showing latest phone poll wit reduced REMAIN lead pic.twitter.com/X9LdJeDkw0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 24, 2016 LAB get much closer with Ipsos Chart showing full voting intention data from today's @IpsosMORI phone pollLDs in double figures pic.twitter.com/ZLmdqFMl02 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 24, 2016 Corbyn overtakes Cameron in the Ipsos leader ratings Corbyn & Farage big gainers in latest Ipsos satisfaction ratings. Cameron the big loser well behind LAB leader pic.twitter.com/NcmDCs90Mq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 24, 2016

LAB in lead for first time since last May as the Tories pay the price for being split

LAB in lead for first time since last May as the Tories pay the price for being split

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YouGov post budget LAB 34 CON 33 LD 6 UKIP 16 Osborne's own ratings as Chancellor now back to quite strongly negative (bad job 46% good job 23%). 51% think the gvt handling economy badly — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) March 17, 2016 More detail from Times story on its YouGov poll pic.twitter.com/hXp0reb6l8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 17, 2016 The YouGov LAB lead poll follows Monday's ICM phone survey which had LAB & CON level pegging — Mike Smithson…

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There was a similar phone/online polling divide at the last national UK referendum

There was a similar phone/online polling divide at the last national UK referendum

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Phone polls trounced online ones in the 2011 AV vote I get asked several a week at the moment for a view on online phone divide that we’ve seen over the EURef. Which is better I’m asked and I’m reluctant to come down on one side or the other. At the general election the final polls from both modes were in the same ball park although during the official campaign period the phone firms were much more like to report…

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Polling analysis: With both phone and online EURef polls the trend has been away from REMAIN

Polling analysis: With both phone and online EURef polls the trend has been away from REMAIN

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There’s been a huge amount of discussion about the big differences between the phone and online referendum polls. Whatever is driving this, and there have been many theories, the trend with each mode in the PB EURef polling averages has been the same – away from REMAIN. As can be seen from the chart the current month sees online with a LEAVE lead while REMAIN is down sharply. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet