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Category: Polls

Zac Goldsmith led between 22% to 30% with the over 65s and still lost

Zac Goldsmith led between 22% to 30% with the over 65s and still lost

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A pointer to the EU Referendum? One of the patterns that have emerged with a lot of the EU referendum polling is that the over 65s favour Brexit by a substantial margin, which gives the Leaver side a lot of hope that they may win the referendum on June 23rd, because older voters have had a higher turnout than younger voters in past elections. But look at the charts above from the final London Mayoral polling by YouGov and Opinium,…

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Super Thursday – what have we learned so far?

Super Thursday – what have we learned so far?

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Key moments of the #Elections2016 so far. Live updates here: https://t.co/ZUqdq49lFc https://t.co/PwHiCCzPlw — BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) May 6, 2016 We now have a good bank of results, which while incomplete allow us to draw some conclusions.  So what conclusions can we draw? The pollsters have either made the right corrections from last year or have been lucky The local election results so far in are very much in line with the broad thrust of the opinion polls we’ve been…

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The numbers that the pollsters hope will help restore faith in their industry

The numbers that the pollsters hope will help restore faith in their industry

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For the past year it has not been much fun being a political pollster. Whenever any new survey has been published it has been greeted with “Well we all know what happened at the General Election”. So today’s elections where there’s been polling, the Welsh Assembly, the Scottish Parliament and most of all London could play a big part in the renewing faith in what they do. The reason this might sound London-centric is because the General Election Scottish polling…

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Sadiq Khan 20% ahead of Goldsmith according to Survation phone poll

Sadiq Khan 20% ahead of Goldsmith according to Survation phone poll

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New Survation London Mayoral poll has Khan 15% ahead Khan 49%Zac 34%UKIP 5%LD 3%GRN 3% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2016 Survation Mayoral poll after allocating 2nd prefsKhan 60%Zac 40% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2016 Survation Mayoral poll was by phone & carried out from Apr 21 to 25 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2016 So on the face of it a great poll for Sadiq Khan, Labour, Corbyn and those PBers who got on the…

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Next Thursday could start to restore our confidence in the polls

Next Thursday could start to restore our confidence in the polls

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Alastair Meeks on the importance of the London, Scottish & Welsh surveys The 2015 general election was a disaster for the polling companies. On the eve of the election, all the pollsters were predicting a hung Parliament with the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck. In the event, the Conservatives were 6% ahead of Labour and got an overall majority. Since then, the pollsters have flagellated themselves, put on hair shirts and sought to uncover what exactly went wrong. They…

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New ComRes phone poll has REMAIN retaining its 7% lead

New ComRes phone poll has REMAIN retaining its 7% lead

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But there’s a sharp increase in don’t knows Almost one of the constants of this campaign has been that the Inners are doing a fair bit better with phone polls than online and so the pattern continues tonight. The first phone poll to be carried out wholly in April, by ComRes for the Sun, has REMAIN maintaining its 7% lead – a gap which is very much in line with the other phone polls that we saw at the start…

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The perceptions on the Tories and Labour

The perceptions on the Tories and Labour

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YouGov have published some polling, conducted within the last week on which groups the voters identify the Tory Party and the Labour Party with. The findings aren’t that surprising. The Tories are perceived to be really close to the rich, businessmen/The City, and voters in the south. Whilst Labour are seen as being really close to trade unions, the working class, and benefit claimants. The most interesting finding from this polling was that the Tories are seen as being not…

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YouGov: Tory voters most ready to change EURef vote when asked what they’d do if BREXIT would cost them £100 a year

YouGov: Tory voters most ready to change EURef vote when asked what they’d do if BREXIT would cost them £100 a year

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There’s a new YouGov poll out which has REMAIN back with in lead from the level pegging. Actual figures are 40% to 39% so all within margin of errot. At the end of the survey YouGov posed this question. “Imagine that if the UK left the European Union the standard of living would be lower and people would on average be £100 a year worse off. In those circumstances, how would you vote in the referendum: Should the United Kingdom…

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