Browsed by
Category: Polls

In past referenda polls tend to overstate the change option

In past referenda polls tend to overstate the change option

Comments 0 Comment

In past plebiscites polls tend to overstate the change option @StephenDFisher analysis finds https://t.co/OPcbNigYyC pic.twitter.com/Ji9p5o65Kl — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 1, 2016 Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick have analysed past referenda in the UK, and they notice that We reflect on the historical experience of polls for referendums in the UK. The graph shows the levels of support for the change option (excluding Don’t Knows) in polls and the final outcome for all ten referendums in the UK for which there…

Read More Read More

Just when you thought June 23rd couldn’t get any more exciting

Just when you thought June 23rd couldn’t get any more exciting

Comments 0 Comment

If on June 23rd there are major movements on the betting and currency markets this is why. https://t.co/cKY5lx3Xtl pic.twitter.com/Q9GcWfQZMh — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 31, 2016 A private exit poll could trigger a run on Sterling and impact the outcome of the referendum The FT are reporting that Hedge funds and investment banks have commissioned private exit polls in an attempt to make profits from the result of the UK’s referendum on EU membership next month. By finding out the voting patterns…

Read More Read More

ICM Phone poll sees Leave 4% ahead. A fortnight ago Remain was ahead by 10%

ICM Phone poll sees Leave 4% ahead. A fortnight ago Remain was ahead by 10%

Comments 0 Comment

ICM EURef phone poll. Leave 52 (+7) Remain 48 (-7) changes from a fortnight ago. https://t.co/6SB9881fAU pic.twitter.com/AGJsLvre6I — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 31, 2016 Both the ICM phone and online polls show Leave winning by 4%. The phone poll sees a 7% swing from Remain to Leave, the online poll sees no swing. Like last night’s ORB phone poll, there’s been a significant shift to Leave, this time a 7% swing from Remain to Leave. What makes this poll very interesting…

Read More Read More

LEAVE’s strong support amongst the oldies is an online phenomenon – the phone surveys paint a different picture

LEAVE’s strong support amongst the oldies is an online phenomenon – the phone surveys paint a different picture

Comments 0 Comment

This starts to explain the modal divide After all the discussion during the week about why the phone and online polls are showing such different pictures I’ve been examining the detailed data from he last eight polls. The area where the two modes most divide is with the oldies – the group that, as we all know is most likely to turnout on June 23rd. The chart above shows the turnout weighted percentage of those oldies expressing a voting intention…

Read More Read More

How old men being available on Friday nights to do online polls might be skewing results

How old men being available on Friday nights to do online polls might be skewing results

Comments 0 Comment

Very early responders to poll invites might not be representative After YouGov’s methodology changes last week ICM have announced their own measures as we approach the big day. This is the firm’s Martin Boon he explains it on the pollster’s website: “..Interviews tend to build up quickly on each Friday night, probably because certain types of people are more readily available and willing to participate. Indeed, there is a remarkable consistency across our online polls, with big Leave leads being…

Read More Read More

Perhaps Leave really are going to win this referendum

Perhaps Leave really are going to win this referendum

Comments 0 Comment

What if the phone polls are wrong? Earlier on this year I spoke to someone who works in the polling industry, they ruefully observed that the 2015 general election opinion polls accurately predicted the Tory victory, so long as you ignored the headline voting intention figures and focussed on the supplementaries, and I’m starting to wonder if we might be seeing a similar situation with this EU referendum, where whatever the headline voting intention figure is, the supplementaries are generally…

Read More Read More

The extraordinary public battle between two of the men behind the creation and success of YouGov

The extraordinary public battle between two of the men behind the creation and success of YouGov

Comments 0 Comment

Once upon a time @PeterKellner1 & @StephanShaxper were the leading lights in YouGov. This morning a Twitter scrap… pic.twitter.com/NBUaGDVjC5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2016 What the #EURef would look like if we just had phone polls pic.twitter.com/H2FmsCtkUL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2016 What EURef would look like if it was just online polls pic.twitter.com/pOx6ALKDLI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2016 Maybe all in the polling industry should have same humility as ICM's @martinboon in the…

Read More Read More

If it was just online polls the referendum narrative and the betting would look very different

If it was just online polls the referendum narrative and the betting would look very different

Comments 0 Comment

This week being the third of the month has seen a glut of phone polls. We’ve had ICM, ORB, Ipsos MORI and last night ComRes all showing substantial REMAIN leads. Inevitably this has had an impact on the huge EUref betting markets where on Betfair alone getting on for £0.5m is being wagered each day. As I write REMAIN’s chances are rated by the market at 79% just about the highest it has ever been. But what if there were…

Read More Read More