Just 16% tell ComRes that LAB-led JC likely to win GE compared with 65% saying TMay-led CON will
Round-up of findings from latest ComRes online poll for Indy/S Mirror
With polls tightening & the betting moves to Trump tonight’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show/Podcast returns to WH2016
Joining Keiran (on the programme is the Politco polling analyst, Steven Shepard (@POLITICO_Steve) and Federica Cocco (@federicacocco) statistical journalist at the Financial Times in the UK. The Clinton health scare on the 15th anniversary of 9/11 and her team’s reaction to it have reinforced doubts about her and have inevitably given Trump a boost. This is, of course, being reflected in the betting where the latest on the Betfair Exchange has Trump on 34/35%. Clinton is hovering around the 60%…
First post-grammar school phone poll sees TMay’s ratings slip 4% & CON lead down 5%
CON lead drops 5% in latest Ipsos-MORI. UKIP the main gainers CON 40% -5LAB 34% =UKIP. 9% +3LD 6%.-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 15, 2016 TMay's net Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings down 4% JC's up 1% pic.twitter.com/ReM0Uhv7MX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 15, 2016 The new PM’s honeymoon appears to be drawing to a close One of the dangers of all polling analysis is to confuse correlation with causation. It is easy to attribute polling changes to the last big…
The polls did far better at the EU referendum than is widely perceived
High levels of postal voting mean we should look at the final 3 weeks not just the final polls Just got back from holiday in the south of France and am focusing on the political session at a big betting conference that I am taking part in on Friday . Inevitably we will be looking back at what happened on June 23rd – the biggest political betting election ever. There’s a widespread perception that the polls got the outcome wrong…
5% of voters show they shouldn’t be allowed out of the house unsupervised or be left alone with sharp implements
5% of voter shouldn't leave the house unsupervised @OpiniumResearch finds 5% of voters think Corbyn is right wing pic.twitter.com/1MiELCXEqz — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 11, 2016 Occasionally polling throws out a result that really does make you go wow. Today’s Opinium poll for the Social Market Foundation contains a doozy. 5% of voters think Jeremy Corbyn is right wing, channelling my inner Sheldon Cooper, whilst I subscribe to the “Many Worlds” theory which posits the existence of an infinite number of Jeremy…
Vox Populi, Vox Dei, the polling that explains why Mrs May is backing creating more grammar schools
Last month YouGov conducted some polling on grammar schools, some of the polling explains why Mrs May has so publicly endorsed the expansion of grammar schools today, it would be appear people view them as good for social mobility. and they would like their children to go to grammar schools. However the polling also found more people in favour of scrapping existing current grammar schools/or not creating any more grammar schools. This is probably based on the studies that show…
If Corbyn wants to win the confidence of Labour MPs he needs to improve his performances in the House of Commons
If Corbyn had more success at PMQs he might improve his poor personal ratings Today PMQs returns after the summer recess, Jeremy Corbyn has been doing PMQs for nearly a year, and if anything his performances have become worse. His strategy of asking questions sent in from the public just doesn’t work at PMQs. Today he could put the government on the rack on any number of issues, the junior doctors’ strike or the NHS funding problems, or Number 10…
So 007, forget ISIS, your next mission is to destabilise Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership
YouGov release more findings from their Labour leadership poll 1/8) Corbyn supporters don’t expect him to do as well as early Blair at a general election https://t.co/pZznqotPot pic.twitter.com/Bi2tkRQd5z — YouGov (@YouGov) September 4, 2016 2/8) Even if he loses the general election, most Corbyn supporters want him to remain leader https://t.co/pZznqotPot pic.twitter.com/i60yycy2Ri — YouGov (@YouGov) September 4, 2016 3/8) 55% of Corbyn supporters in the Labour selectorate believe MI5 is working against him https://t.co/pZznqotPot pic.twitter.com/BAA0g742ge — YouGov (@YouGov) September 4,…