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Category: Polls

Donald Trump might be engaging in some polling denial

Donald Trump might be engaging in some polling denial

Embed from Getty Images Is the GOP nominee flying blind in the swing states? One of the fun things about the final few days of any election campaign, be it a US Presidential race or a UK general election is seeing where the leaders/candidates are spending the final few days of the campaign as it feels you glean where the battleground states are based on the candidate’s private polling which in turn gives you an indication of the final result….

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Why YouGov says we should beware of the phantom swings: dramatic bounces in the polls aren’t always what they seem

Why YouGov says we should beware of the phantom swings: dramatic bounces in the polls aren’t always what they seem

Maybe things aren’t as bad for Clinton after all? YouGov has produced what I regard as must read analysis by Benjamin Lauderdale of the LSE and Douglas Rivers on what it terms phantom polling swings. Thus on the face of it there has been a move from Clinton to Trump in the aftermath of the FBI announcement. Their argument is that this might not be all it seems In essence they are saying is that whenever there’s particularly bad news…

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New YouGov polling on what would happen if there was no UKIP

New YouGov polling on what would happen if there was no UKIP

The standard poll with UKIP included Westminster voting intention for Election Data /YouGov CON 42%LAB 26%LD 8%UKIP 12%GRN 5%F/W 19-20th Oct — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 21, 2016 How same sample responded when UKIP excluded Westminster voting intention for Election Data /YouGov with UKIP removedCON 47% (+5)LAB 28% (+2)LD 10% (+2)GRN 5% =F/W 19-20th Oct — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 21, 2016

New YouGov polling finds REMAIN voters far from being reconciled to leaving EU

New YouGov polling finds REMAIN voters far from being reconciled to leaving EU

80% of remainers think we’ll be worse off – just 5% better off This is quite an interesting question from YouGov which the firm’s been using in one form or another since well before the referendum. The splits in the chart are the most stark – how those who voted REMAIN view it compared with LEAVE voters. Amongst GE2015 voters just CON voters tell YouGov that they believe country will be better off. 32% say worse off. Amongst the different…

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New ICM poll finds LAB 17% behind overall with the 75+ group splitting 70-7% for the Tories

New ICM poll finds LAB 17% behind overall with the 75+ group splitting 70-7% for the Tories

So far no sign that Corbyn’s re-election is restoring LAB’s fortunes If LAB was hoping that the end of its leadership contest with Corbyn continuing was going to restore its fortunes then there’s no sign of it yet. The latest Guardian ICM poll is out and has an overall split of: CON 43%: LAB 26%: LD 8%: UKIP 11%: GRN 6% It is the massive age differences that are very striking as can be seen in the chart above. LAB…

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So far no conference or JC re-election bounce for LAB

So far no conference or JC re-election bounce for LAB

No change at YouGov following events of last week New YouGov hasCON 39LAB 30LD 8UKIP 13Unchanged on last week — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2016 New findings on TMay TMay's net YouGov "Well/badly" ratings down from +31% on Sep 4 to +24%. By 42% to 26% sample said she "doesn't "care for people like me" — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2016 YouGov. Is TMay up to the job of being PMYes 52%No 19%40% of GE2015 LAB voters say…

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Trump winning the online, unscientific, polling

Trump winning the online, unscientific, polling

Every on-line poll, Time Magazine, Drudge etc., has me winning the debate. Thank you to Fox & Friends for so reporting! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 28, 2016 Such a great honor. Final debate polls are in – and the MOVEMENT wins!#AmericaFirst #MAGA #ImWithYouhttps://t.co/3KWOl2ibaW pic.twitter.com/sfCEE3I5pF — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 27, 2016 With many votes originating from Russian troll farms — Spartacus (@nevakissedatory) September 28, 2016 Why PB is introducing a new policy on voodoo poll comments PB…

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