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GE 2015 single constituency polling: Remember when 5 consecutive surveys had Clegg being unseated

GE 2015 single constituency polling: Remember when 5 consecutive surveys had Clegg being unseated

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The numbers caused LAB to focus on the DPM when they could have been saving Balls There’s been a fair bit of discussion about how difficult single seat polling is and I was reminded on Twitter this morning of the polling at GE2015 of Sheffield Hallam. The numbers are above. Five consecutive polls had LAB ahead. As can be seen there was a pretty consistent picture that the then DPM,, who still arouses excitement amongst red tribalists, was in trouble…

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Corbyn and his party’s biggest challenge is making headway amongst his own age group – the oldies

Corbyn and his party’s biggest challenge is making headway amongst his own age group – the oldies

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With the youngsters LAB’s just fine: pity they’re less likely to vote Watching the TV news it’s clear that Corbyn Mark 2 hasn’t quite had the impact that his team would have liked. There’s a terrible lack of consistency and no real clear plan about what the message was going to be. A problem is that the audience for TV news bulletins tend to be the very people that Corbyn and LAB are most struggling with – the oldies. Today’s…

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CON slips 3 and LAB drop to 24% in new YouGov Times poll

CON slips 3 and LAB drop to 24% in new YouGov Times poll

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The squeeze on LAB from Yellow and Purple continues Unlike the last last parliament when there was at least one poll every single day for more than four years surveyd are now few and far between at the moment. The only regular (monthly or more) Westminster voting polls are coming from just four firms – YouGov, ICM, Opinium and Ipsos MORI. At least individual polls are not having a greater impact. The big picture is the continuation of the sorry…

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Pre-Christmas voodoo surveys might have had a big move against BREXIT but that’s not been picked in proper polls

Pre-Christmas voodoo surveys might have had a big move against BREXIT but that’s not been picked in proper polls

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Express & Star Dec 24 2016 The YouGov view of BREXIT tracker There was a flurry of activity just before Christmas prompted by the publication in the Wolverhampton & Shropshire Express and Star of the “poll” at the top contrasting views on BREXIT now with a similar “poll” carried out in the same manner in March last year. As can be seen it shows a dramatic change in opinion. There are said to have been three other local newspaper polls…

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POLL ALERT: Polling Matters / Opinium: Voters back ‘soft Brexit’ but reject second referendum – even if the economy worsens

POLL ALERT: Polling Matters / Opinium: Voters back ‘soft Brexit’ but reject second referendum – even if the economy worsens

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Embed from Getty Images   The first poll commissioned by the ‘Polling Matters’ podcast, conducted by Opinium, shows little appetite for another referendum but we shouldn’t assume voters want a ‘hard Brexit’ either writes Keiran Pedley Since the EU referendum result was announced last June, many have sought to explain on behalf of voters why they voted the way they did and therefore surmise what they want from any Brexit deal. To try and understand what is really going on…

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The polls did NOT get BREXIT wrong: Only 41% had REMAIN leads. 59% didn’t

The polls did NOT get BREXIT wrong: Only 41% had REMAIN leads. 59% didn’t

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Is it too much to expect Britain’s PR people to check simple facts? One of the enduring myths from June 23rd was that the polls got it wrong. Some did but most in the official campaign period didn’t as shown in the chart. That esteemed body that allegedly speaks for PR people, the Public Relations and Communications Association (PRCA), has announced it is holding an inquiry into polling specifically referencing GE2015 and the June 23rd referendum. Certainly the former was…

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