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Labour reduce the Tory lead to 23% with YouGov in the most incredible polling night I can ever remember

Labour reduce the Tory lead to 23% with YouGov in the most incredible polling night I can ever remember

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  New ComRes poll for Sunday Mirror: HIGHEST TORY VOTE SHARE SINCE JAN 1991 Con 50(+4) Lab 25(-) LD 11(-) UKIP 7(-2) — Andrew Hawkins (@PigsAndPolling) April 22, 2017 ComRes for Sunday Mirror: T May has higher best PM rating than Corbyn, Farron & Nuttall combined — Andrew Hawkins (@PigsAndPolling) April 22, 2017 If this poll is as wrong in the other direction as the polls in 2015, 1992 and 1970 *put together*, Tories still have more seats than Labour…

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Opinium sees the Tory lead up 10% in a week to 19%. Labour are on course for an absolute hammering if the polls are right

Opinium sees the Tory lead up 10% in a week to 19%. Labour are on course for an absolute hammering if the polls are right

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New @OpiniumResearch Con 45 (+7) Lab 26 (-3) LD 11 (+4) UKIP 9 (-5) Changes since last week. FW 19/20 Aprilhttps://t.co/JDBaJ9a0K2 — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 22, 2017 Since Theresa May announced the general election, we’ve had three polls, with leads of 21%, 24%, and now 19% for the blues. The trend is not Labour’s friend. We might need to come up with a new adjective for  just how rubbish Corbyn is. This poll presages an absolute shellacking for Labour. If…

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Tories take a 24% lead with YouGov. Can they poll 50% and above?

Tories take a 24% lead with YouGov. Can they poll 50% and above?

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EXC: Tonight Tories on 48% in the first YouGov poll taken since Theresa May called election – highest since May 2008 pic.twitter.com/awaKs7V0Yv — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) April 19, 2017 What that @YouGov poll would look like at a general election. Tory majority of 186 pic.twitter.com/bRqvp6qmIx — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 19, 2017 As Labour head for the mother and father of all shellackings, if Corbyn had any honour or love for Labour he’d stand down now but INDEPENDENT DIGITAL Revealed:…

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If Macron makes it to the final two then surely he’s the next President of France

If Macron makes it to the final two then surely he’s the next President of France

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Latest Macron-Le Pen polling Latest Macron-Fillon polling Latest Macron-Melenchon polling The above tables from the excellent Wikipedia round up of French polls tell a consistent story – whoever of those closest on the first round ends up fighting Macron then the young independent looks set to be the winner. Melenchon is the only one of the serious contenders who consistently gets into the 40s in hypothetical match-ups against Macron. Fillon fares worst with Le Pen in the middle. The big…

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Another day, another 21% poll lead for the Tories, this time with YouGov

Another day, another 21% poll lead for the Tories, this time with YouGov

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New @YouGov @thetimes poll Con 44 (+2) Lab 23 (-2) Lib Dems 12 (+1) UKIP 10 (-1)https://t.co/xyWwshHpSJ — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 16, 2017 .@YouGov @thetimes The LD have climbed back to 12%, their equal best level of public support this parliament, which they matched once before in December — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 16, 2017 For those of us who thought 25% was Labour’s floor, we might need to start re-evaluating our assumptions. Surely Labour and Corbyn can’t carry on like…

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Tories take a stonking 21% lead with ComRes, up 4% in month

Tories take a stonking 21% lead with ComRes, up 4% in month

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  Tories take 21% lead with @ComResPolls poll for Sunday Mirror/Independent Con 46 (+4) Lab 25 (nc) LD 11 (-1) UKIP 9 (-1) Greens 4 (nc) — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 15, 2017 This ComRes poll indicates Labour are headed for the mother of all beatings at the next general election. Surely with 20% plus leads Labour members will come to their senses and ditch the electoral liability that is is Corbyn Which might explain the support for a new centre…

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Who will speak for Millennials?

Who will speak for Millennials?

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Young voters lack political representation says Keiran Pedley. So who is going to step up? One of the topics discussed on the latest PB/Polling Matters podcast was the striking difference in views on Brexit by age. This week saw the first political poll by my company (GfK) for 12 years. One of the questions we asked was whether Brits thought Brexit was the “right decision” or the “wrong decision”. The results can be found in the chart below. Table 1:…

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The Multiplier Effect: Regional, Social and Brexit swing make a bad story worse for Corbyn’s LAB

The Multiplier Effect: Regional, Social and Brexit swing make a bad story worse for Corbyn’s LAB

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Polling analysis: CON’s getting biggest swings where it matters most Writing a thread on why Labour might do even worse than headline polling figures suggest feels uncomfortably like kicking a man when he’s down. However, if that’s what’s happening then it needs reporting and interpreting; I am only the messenger. And it is happening. Poll after poll has reported differential swings across regions, social groups and Brexit alignment. I’ve therefore looked at all the polls published in March to see…

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