Popular policies might be the explanation for Labour’s increase in the polls since the start of the campaign At the start of this general election campaign, I thought there was a chance that my 10/1 bets on Labour polling sub 20% might be in play but during this general election campaign if the polls are accurate, Labour’s share of the vote has risen, and Labour might end up polling close to 40%. Now there’s much discussion about what is driving up…
Tonight's @YouGov @thesundaytimes poll Con 43 (nc) Lab 36 (-2) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 4 (nc) Via @ShippersUnbound pic.twitter.com/NkUZm20Z2d — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 27, 2017 Looks like women are behind the Corbyn surge in @ORB_Int poll. Fieldwork Wed and Thurs https://t.co/nnoHIskTIM pic.twitter.com/MP2w59QJAK — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 27, 2017 Well if these polls turn out be accurate then Mrs May’s gamble to hold an early election will turn out be a mistake. What will keep Mrs May and CCHQ happy is…
As well as what’s being described as a U-turn over her manifesto pledge on social care there’ve been two new polls during the day all showing LAB making progress. The one that has shown the biggest move is the YouGov Wales poll for ITV. The figures, if repeated, suggest that LAB’s lead over CON is now greater than it was at GE2015 in the Principality. Via @roger_scully LAB sees huge surge in latest YouGov Wales poll LAB 44%+9CON 34%-7PC 9%-2LD…
Tory “squeaky bum time”? Maybe not yet Since TMay launched her CON manifesto last Thursday we have had just three published polls where all or part of the fieldwork took place afterwards – the Sunday Times YouGov, the Mail on Sunday Survation online poll and now, this morning, a Survation phone poll for Good Morning Britain. We’ve seen the same direction in all of them – a narrowing of the Conservative lead. This latest Survation has with changes on last…
Intro/ YouGov’s @adammcdonnell21 looks at undecided voters and how they are likely to vote https://t.co/V6mVf7uOQ4 — YouGov (@YouGov) May 14, 2017 .@AdamMcDonnell21 1/ There are 3 types of undecided voters:1. On the verge of deciding2. Probably won’t vote3. True undecidedhttps://t.co/V6mVf7ddru — YouGov (@YouGov) May 14, 2017 .@AdamMcDonnell21 2/ Some undecided voters are simply on the verge of deciding – their voting intention looks much like decided voters https://t.co/V6mVf7uOQ4 pic.twitter.com/LxjuLAwRDW — YouGov (@YouGov) May 14, 2017 .@AdamMcDonnell21 3/ Some undecided voters…
Graphic – The times And the LD could triple their Scottish seats The main General Election polling news overnight has been a YouGov/Times survey of Scotland which suggests that the Conservatives could start to win back some of the seats in Scotland that they held more than a quarter of a century ago. The Lib Dems could also stage a small recovery tripling the Scottish total to three seats. Labour, which at GE2010, won 41 of Scotland’s 59 seats, is…
Now age, education and gender give a better guide This afternoon YouGov has published a series of charts to give us an idea about the electorate who will vote on June 8th. This will be the first election since analysis became possible when class was far less important. Age education and to an extent gender now the key measures as the charts demonstrate. Labour’s problem is that under Mr. Corbyn the working classes have ceased to support the party that…
It did have Brexit “right” 4% ahead Given the overwhelming importance of the Brexit negotiations in Mrs May’s stated reason for the early General Election then it is important to continue to follow how voters now view that decision last June. The one regular tracking poll on this is the YouGov question featured above and as can be seen the split has been fairly stable since the first poll to take place shortly after Theresa May entered number 10 Downing…