How six became four at Populus A new dimension in UK opinion polls was introduced yesterday that could have a major impact for all political gamblers. The front page of the Times was dominated with news of the latest Populus Poll that showed the Tories 4% ahead. There was only one problem – the actual lead was 6% but in a feature on the inside pages was news that Populus had introduced a new policy – to compensate in favour…
May’s Populus poll in the Times this morning provides further evidence that Labour is in for a terrible “Super Thursday” on June 10 when the Euro, London and local election take place. The survey gives the Tories their biggest lead in a non-internet poll since the fuel protests of 2000 and suggests that Tony Blair will be 19 seats short of an overall majority in the next House of Commons. This is the party split with a seat projection from…
With just over four weeks to go before the London Mayoral election Politicalbetting.com’s longstanding call to back Norris looks even better than ever. A You Gov poll in the Evening Standard has the split at Livingstone 40 – Norris 31. But taking only those saying they are “certain to vote” the figures change to 39-34 a lead for Ken of just 5% As we’ve been saying for months – this is the best political bet there is. Get on before…
The General Election, party leaders and Tony Blair political betting markets could be affected by a new YouGov poll in the Mail on Sunday this morning. This suggests that Labour would do substantially better at the General Election if Tony Blair stood down to make way for Gordon Brown and puts the Prime Minister under more pressure. With Tony Blair still there the YouGov figures show a CON-LAB split of 40-36, which is an increase of one point for both…
With almost all the parties having launched their local and Euro campaigns for “Super Thursday” on June 10 the nightmare for political gamblers and others who like to predict these things is how do you deal with very low-turnouts? For low-turnouts can completely distort a result making prediction very challenging and can cause politicians and commentators to draw totally wrong conclusions about the way the public feels. Before the 1999 Euro Elections all the polls had support for Labour at…
This morning’s poll in the Telegraph by YouGov brings bad news for all three parties at the start of the Euro Elecion campaign. YouGov has picked up the trend recorded in the latest polls by MORI and ICM to show a marginal improvement in Labour’s position even though Tony Blair has been having a torrid time. The change in the gap between Labour and Conservative has, like MORI, improved by one percentage point in Labour’s favour. YouGov is showing Michael…
………and don’t confuse seats for votes. A consistent theme on Politicalbetting.com is that political gamblers should not confuse votes for seats. We’ve repeatedly pointed out that because of differing turnouts and the way the Westminster seats are distributed Labour can still win a Commons majority even if its vote slumps by 10% at the next General Election. But there’s another danger that was repeated by the Guardian in its main leader yesterday – do not confuse Labour’s healthy Commons seat…
A big issue for political gamblers in the UK is how you do distinguish between the two polling organisations that were most accurate with the 2001 General Election and who both claim to be “Britain’s most accurate pollster” ICM and YouGov? Is ICM, the Guardian’s pollster, overstating what Labour will get at the General Election because it is giving too much weight to people who say they are not certain whether they will vote? This is a critical question for…