NOTE: LIMITED SITE UPDATES FOR THE NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF OVERSEAS WORK COMMITMENTS Establishing whether those in polling surveys actually vote One of the obvious ways that the polls are flawed is that currently about 70% of those interviewed say that they voted last time but we know that less than 60% actually did so. Thus one in ten are either telling lies, wishful thinking or have poor memories. Whatever it must distort the polling outcome. Would it be possible,…
AMENDED 4.30 pm Thursday. Fifty years of over-estimating Labour The heart of our election prediction formula that has caused so much debate is the undisputed fact that all the pollsters seem to have a flaw when it comes to assessing Labour. This is not new and has been going on for decades. In only two of the General Elections over the past fifty years have the pollsters not over-stated Labour – February 1974 and the Tory landslide of 1983. Since…
Has Blair really not been hurt by Iraq, Kelly, and Hutton? The Independent on Sunday’s new pollster, Communicate Research, has Labour back at their 2001 General Election share according to their latest survey out today. The figures with changes on the same poll last month are CON 31 (-2), LAB 42(+2), LD 20(+3). At the last election Labour got 42%, the Tories 32.7% and the Lib Dems 18.8%. So the only change on 2001, according to CR, is a small…
Revealed – How the pollsters produce their numbers People who like to probe behind the headline figures that are issued by the polling firms are going to have a field day following the introduction of the British Polling Council rules requiring pollsters to publish the background data that was used. For the first time the main pollsters are having to publish a specified range of information that went into producing their headline figures so that interested observers can subject them…
Slightly better news for Michael Howard After the NOP and ICM polls showing Labour leads of 8-9% this month’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph has the margin dropping to just 3%. The figures are:- LAB 35% (-1): CON 32% (n/c): LD 23% (+1): UKIP 5% (n/c) Compared with the YouGov poll at the start of October the Labour lead has been halved. Today’s poll is also good news for the Lib Dems with it returning to its highest share…
The statistics they never tell you As we predicted yesterday’s ICM poll in the Guardian pushed up Labour prices and depressed Tory ones on the spread, seat and overall winner markets. The latest IG spreads are:- LAB 342-350 (+2): CON 198-206 (-2): LD 69-73 (+1). SportingIndex is LAB 342-350: CON 205-213: LD 70-74 – the discrepancy based on the fact that they are using the old larget House of Commons – not the new reduced sized one. The best boomaker…
Has the Indy swapped its polling winner for a polling loser? A new poll in the Independent today by NOP gives Labour a 9% lead. The shares are:- CON 30: LAB 39: LD 20. Allowing for turnout, however, the Strathclyde University elections expert, John Curtice, says the lead drops by 4% amongst those certain to vote. [UPDATE] We have now been told that the poll was weighted by stated past vote. NOP have only just returned to conducting national UK…
Baxter calculation = Labour 162 majority Tony Blair is heading for a majority of 162 if the party vote shares in latest MORI poll were applied on a uniform national swing basis. The shares with seat projects from Martin Baxter calculator are:- LAB 39% 404 seats CON 29% 148 seats LD 22% 65 seats The surveying took place in the final week in October and the results have only just become available. They represent a huge swing to Labour following…