Sensational figures from the Times’s pollster The February Populus Poll to be published in the Times tomorrow puts Labour on 41% – just one point less than it achieved in the 2001 General Election. The vote shares showing the variation since January are: LAB 41 (+3): CON 32 (-1): LD 18 (-2). These are staggering figures and mean that pollster has Labour up from 28% in September when Populus had them in third place. In the same period the pollster…
How much is immigration helping the Tories? A new YouGov poll revealed today on the pollster’s website shows a one per cent boost for the Lib Dems at the expense of the Tories compared with the survey that was published in the Daily Telegraph on Friday. The figures are: LAB 35 (nc): CON 33 (-1): LD 23 (+1).. These are small changes which could, as YouGov boss Peter Kellner writes in an article, be put down to sampling error. In…
The methodology divide deepens Three new surveys this morning from conventional interview-based pollster show big leads for Labour and contrast sharply with the interviewer-free YouGov poll on Friday that had the party just 1% ahead. ICM in the Sunday Telegraph, which uses telephone interviews, have the Labour margin down by 2% on last week’s survey by the same pollster in the Guardian. The shares are – CON 32(+1): LAB 37(-1): LD 21(nc). Interestingly both YouGov and ICM are recording the…
But some good news for Howard and Kennedy After Friday’s YouGov poll with a Labour lead of just one point a very different picture of the current political climate is shown in the January survey by Communicate Research for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday. The figures are: LAB 40 (+1): CON 32 (-2) LD 20 (+1) and mean that the pollster’s Labour total is 2% higher than any other firm. But all is not plain sailing for Tony Blair because the…
Are betting markets a good guide to changing opinion? A remarkable aspect of today’s YouGov move to the Tories was that the change was forecast more than forty-hours beforehand on the betting markets even while the survey for the Daily Telegraph was still taking place. On Tuesday Michael Howard’s party was at it’s lowest point for years on the spread-betting markets with the range being predicted by those ready to back up their opinions with cash at 183-190 seats. The…
UKIP’s decline and immigration give Howard a boost Punters who have been backing the Tories on the spread-betting markets in the past few days have been vindicated by the latest YouGov poll in the Telegraph has the party 3% up on last Sunday. The figures are: LAB 35% (+1): CON 34 (+3): LD 22 (-3): OTH 9 (-1) Interestingly the change has come from the Lib Dems and not Labour which has gone up. It might be that part of…
For the second day running the spread-betting price on the number of MPs that punters think the party will get at the coming election has moved upwards. After yesterday’s two seat rise IG Index have added a further seat at the expense of Labour. Today’s spreads are:- LAB 356-363 (-1): CON 186-193 (+1): LDs 71-75. We do not know whether this is as a result of more money going on or just a precautionary step by the firm in advance…
Howard’s immigration plans please the punters After weeks of steady decline on the spread markets the Tory price has staged a small recovery as punters seek to get in at what they see as bargain prices. IG Index this evening marked Michael Howard’s party up two seats as punters took stock of the policy line-up on immigration and Labour’s two point drop in the Guardian ICM poll. There’s also a realisation that a Labour buy bet on 364 seat –…