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Another poll shows its getting very close Today’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph is in line with other recent polls and shows that the gap between the main parties is narrowing. The shares with comparisons from the Sunday Times YG poll five days ago are:- CON 34(+2): LAB 35(-2): LDEM 22 (-1). Last weekend’s YG poll in the Sunday Times was taken in the immediate aftermath of Gordon Brown’s budget while the big political issue during this survey was…

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Polling round-up With polls coming think and fast we’ve not featured an ICM survey, commissioned by Age Concern and the Fawcett Society among older women. The survey produced vote shares of CON 42%: LAB 29%: LD 21%. About one in five of those surveyed said they were still undeicided. The survey contrasts with a similar one before the 1997 General Election when 40 per cent of women over 55 backed Labour. According to a report in the Independent a key…

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Labour lose out to the Lib Dems This month’s MORI’s puts the two main parties next and neck and reports a big boost for the Liberal Democrats, at the expense of Labour. The figures – which are based on those certain to vote – are CON 37(nc): LAB 37 (-2): LD 20% (+2). This is the first time for six months that the Tories have not been behind Labour in a survey from one of the main polling organisations and…

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Will these supporters vote for Blair? Could the standard theory of General Elections being decided by which party appeals best to swing voters be turned on its head during the coming campaign? In a new article just published on the MORI website the firm’s Roger Mortimore suggests that because turnout looks like being the main issue for all the parties then those that get most of their core votes out will be the ones to succeed. And this could change…

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But British Electoral Survey has Tory lead of 2.8% amongst those “certain to vote” After the euphoria in the Tory ranks following the February ICM poll it’s is down to earth with a bang after the publication of this month’s survey. What seemed an attainable gap of just three points in February is now eight points and we are back in Labour landslide land. But the only blot on the horizon for Tony Blair’s party was news last night of…

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UPDATED 2245 Restoring the smile on Tony Blair’s face The ICM March survey for the Guardian tomorrow gives a real boost to the Labour campaign and shows a big increase since the last survey a month ago. The figures are:- LAB 40 (+3): Con 32 (-2): LD 20 (-1). [But the BBC’s Newsnight programme has reported tonight that a poll by the British Election Survey has the Tories ahead amongst those who are certain to vote. We have not been…

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But what will be the turnout? An ICM poll for the Guardian tomorrow shows that Labour’s support among Britain’s minority ethnic voters has fallen sharply since the last general election. Even so the party still enjoys a commanding lead with these sections of the electorate The poll shares from the survey were: LAB 58: LD 23: CON 14 The Labour figure is significantly lower than the 75% who backed Tony Blair’s party in the 2001 general election. There’s no reason…

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