The numbers still looks good for Tony The final list of Sunday paper polls is:- MORI: LAB 36 (nc): CON 33(-1): LD 22 (-1) Communicate Research LAB 39 (-1): CON 31 (-4): LD 23 (+5) YouGov: LAB 36 (nc) : CON 33 (+1): LD 23 (-1) ICM LAB 39 (-1): CON 31 (-2): LD 22 (+2) British Polling Index: LAB 37 (+1): CON 33 (nc): LD 21 (-1) This has prompted almost no change in the Commons seats spreadbetting markets….
First up tonight is Communicate Research in the Indpendent on Sunday which has LAB 39 (-1): CON 31 (-4): LD 23 (+5). Next Thursday will be the first time CR has been tested against real results. It remains to be seen whether it can perform better than the pollster the Indy on Sunday used four years ago, Rasmussen, which with its automated phone methodology was the only firm to get the Tories right and got the Labour margin within 2%….
Betting on votes – not seats With Labour’s victory being almost as big a certainty as Sunderland South being the first seat to declare there’s increasing interest in the party vote share markets where you do not have to factor in the complicated and varied considerations about how the seats will divide. And it is here that you can bet for or against the findings of specific opinion pollsters. If you think that YouGov are predicting this one best then…
5am UPDATE 5am UPDATE Lib Dems advancing in most surveys We understand that there are going to be at least five news polls tonight for tomorrow’s papers. In all cases we have compared the polls with what the same pollster was reporting last time. First up – from YouGov for the Sunday Times has LAB 36 (-2): CON 35 (+2): LD 23 (+1). This should ease some of the conerns in the Tory camp after the shock 5% Labour lead…
Blair boosted by more supporters saying they will vote A new poll for the Guardian tomorrow by ICM has Labour six points ahead. The headline figures are with changes on the last ICM poll: LAB 39 (+1) : CON 33(nc) : LD 21 (-1) The main drive behind the new figures is a greater desire of Labour supporters to actually vote. Those who said they would definitely go to the polling stations shot up from 52% to 59%, while the…
Most desired outcome: “Labour – but with Blair’s wings clipped” A new ICM poll for the website Strategicvoter shows that the vast majority of voters do not want either Labour or the Tories to win big on May 5th. The pollster asked more than 1000 people to choose between six possible outcomes and this is what they found:- 23 % wanted a Labour overall majority of 30+ seats 15% wanted a Labour majority but less than 30 seats 10% wanted…
Comparing voters’ intentions with what they said they did in 2001 An interesting way of looking at opinion polls is to compare what people said they did last time with the current intention – and the results are quite striking and contrast quite sharply with the published headline figures. From the detailed data in the latest YouGov poll 914 people had previously recorded that they’d voted Labour at the 2001 General Election. Yet now only 562 said they were voting…
Do Communicate Research polls overstate Labour? Yesterday’s Communicate Research poll in the Independent on Sunday suggesting that Labour is doing even better than at the 2001 General Election has provoked a lot of debate on how the pollster carries out its surveys. For ever since the firm began polling for the paper we’ve raised questions about the CR methodology which we believe overstates Labour and understates the the Tories and Lib Dems. A major challenge for telephone pollsters is finding…