.. A tale of two polls and two polling methodologies A new poll by ICM for the Sunday Telegraph this morning should ease some of the jitters within the Lib Dems. After Friday’s YouGov survey putting their share down at 13% the ICM numbers out today are CON 37: LAB 36: LD 18. The only change on Tuesday’s Guardian ICM survey is a one point drop for the Lib Dems. The timing of the polls meant that all the interviewing…
Few crumbs for party in ICM data feast The pollster, ICM, has now made available 41 pages of detailed data on its Lib Dem leadership poll that appeared in the Guardian on Wednesday. It will be recalled that the survey was unusual in that it was carried out online and part involved respondents watching video clips of the candidates. Even allowing for the fact that the sample was very small the results were shocking and showed the challenge the party…
Labour back in the lead even though the Tories make progress YouGov’s monthly poll for the Telegraph has the Lib Dems share dropping by 5 points with almost all of that going to Labour. The result is that while the Tories continue to make progress the major beneficiary of the problems in the Lib Dems has been Tony Blair’s party. The party shares with changes on last month are CON 39%(+1): LAB 40%(+4): LD 13%(-5). It should be noted that…
UPDATED 0832 Party President now back as firm second favourite An unusual online poll in the Guardian this morning should make good reading for the Lib Dem party president, Simon Hughes, in his bid to become leader. The pollster, which usually carries out phone surveys, used the internet to interview 90 Tory voters, 90 Labour, 90 Lib Dems and 23 who supported other parties to ask about their views of the three leadership challengers. The group split Hughes 51: Campbell…
THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CUT – A STATMENT WILL BE PUT ON THE SITE THE SITE DURING THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 28/29 The latest survey from ICM, has the following shares in its monthly survey for the Guardian – CON 37%(-2): LAB 36%(+1) LD 19%(-1). The comparisons are with the ICM News of the World Survey nine days ago. Surveying took place from Friday to Sunday so only about a third of those interviewed would have been aware of the…
Brown gains ground on Cameron For the first time since David Cameron was elected leader of the Conservatives Gordon Brown has achieved higher ratings in a poll than Tony Blair when set against the new Tory leader. This is a move that has gone on almost completely unnoticed apart from in Anthony Wells’s Polling Report. In figures that were not published at the weekend ICM had this split with Brown as leader compared with the main party selection: CON 38…
ICM puts the Tories four points ahead As the chart, reproduced from today’s News of the World shows, the first ICM poll of 2006 provides further evidence that the Tory turnaround which started with the election of David Cameron continues to gather force. The voting intentions (with changes since ICM’s last poll in December) are CON 39%(+2): LAB 35%(-1): LD 20%(-1). The poll is excellent news for the Tories and is also reassuring for the Lib Dems which had seen…
Another way of looking at the survey information With the big question in British politics today being how the Tories are doing under their new leader the opinion polls are being scrutinised more closely than usual. In the raw data for this week’s Times poll a total of 229 respondents told Populus that they had voted Tory at the General Election – just eight months ago. But 277 people in the survey, in excess of fifth more, said they would…