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Category: Polls

Introducing the PB.C live conversations

Introducing the PB.C live conversations

First into the Hot Seat – Controversial US pollster, Frank Luntz With polling, focus groups and other methods of testing opinion playing such a big part for those who like betting on or just predicting political outcomes the site is launching the “PBC Live Conversations”. The plan is to go beyond and be more focused than our existing discussion forums by inviting prominent figures, particularly pollsters, to take part live in on-line conversations at prearranged times. I am delighted that…

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YouGov data shows Tories with a 15% lead amongst women

YouGov data shows Tories with a 15% lead amongst women

A pollling quirk or are women really flocking to Dave? The full dataset from May’s YouGov poll in the Telegraph shows a gender divide in voting intention on a scale that is almost unprecedented. The 1,009 men in the sample split CON 33: LAB 35: LD 15: OTH 15 – Labour 2% ahead The 1,093 women who were polled split CON 43: LAB 28: LD 16: OTH 13 Conservatives 15% ahead Putting these shares into the Baxter calculator Labour would…

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Lib Dems at lowest YouGov level since February

Lib Dems at lowest YouGov level since February

Could new poll put further pressure on Ming? The May YouGov poll in the Telegraph has the following shares with comparisons on the last survey by the pollster two weeks ago CON 38 (+1): LAB 32 (+1): LD 16 (-1). So all the main pollsters with the regular monthly newspapers slots – YouGov, Populus and ICM – put Cameron’s Conservatives on the same level of support – 38% – and this is starting to look fairly robust. But a 38%…

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How MORI’s web-site is confusing polling history

How MORI’s web-site is confusing polling history

The pit-falls of using the pollster’s historical all-firms table With the first major shift in party popularity since 1992 a lot of people on the site are looking back at the data from the final years of the John Major government to find comparisons with what we are seeing at the moment. Many are asking how the Tories are doing now compared with how Labour was performing in the polls in the first year or so after the 1992 election….

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ICM has yet more poll gloom for Gordon

ICM has yet more poll gloom for Gordon

Poll shows the Tory lead more than doubling with him as leader Today’s monthly ICM poll in the Guardian has with changes on last month CON 38%(+4): LAB 34%(+2): LD20%(-4). This is in line with the trend of other recent polls showing the Tories moving forward although Labour has a better showing than the recent Populus or YouGov surveys. When the voting intention question was asked with Brown named as leader against Cameron’s Conservatives and Campbell’s Lib Dems the shares…

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Can Labour break through the 32% ceiling?

Can Labour break through the 32% ceiling?

Will new polls confirm whether the turmoil is still causing damage? When the May Populus survey showing a Labour deficit of 8% came out last week I urged caution because the survey had been taken against a backcloth of heated speculation and talk of a Labour civil war. Often surveys that take place in such a charged atmosphere, I noted, produce extraordinary results. We should get a better measure of the current state of public opinion over the next eight…

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ICM: 52% say “it’s wrong” that a Scot should be PM

ICM: 52% say “it’s wrong” that a Scot should be PM

New poll finds anti-Scottish bias south of the border With two of the possible contenders or the coming Labour leadership battle being Scottish – Gordon Brown and John Reid – there are some worrying findings for the party in an an ICM poll carried out for today’s “Politics Show” on BBC1. When asked if they thought it “wrong” that in the era of the Scottish parliament a Scot should become Prime Minister of the whole of the UK 52% said…

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Punters stick by Labour in spite of new polls

Punters stick by Labour in spite of new polls

Populus and YouGov fail to shift the markets The trend against Labour shown in yesterday’s Populus Poll is reinforced this morning in a new YouGov poll for this morning’s Daily Telegraph. The Betfair betting exchange price, meanwhile, has seen the Labour price tighten and the Tory price ease. The shares with comparisons on the last YouGov poll are CON 37%(+2): LAB 31%(-1): LD 17% (-1). YouGov is still reporting a high share – 6% – for the BNP. Although other…

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