..and YouGov trend data gives Cameron more to smile about Today’s June ICM poll in the Guardian has with comparisons on a month ago CON 37 (-1): LAB 32 (-2): LD 21 (+1) and underlines that the Tory position is becoming more robust. Because of its methodology ICM tends to be much less volatile than Mori and the 5 point Tory margin is the biggest the party has enjoyed with the pollster’s Guardian since August 1992 – the month before…
[Updated 0730] “Nearly one in four Labour supporters want their party to lose” The Observer carries reports this morning of a new Mori poll that shows that amongst those certain to vote – the pollster’s normal way of presenting its headline figures – the Tories had a 7% lead. The online version carries only a few details but those forking out £1.60 for the print edition edition get little extra information for their cash. Although there are fancy colour graphics…
Has the “Tory leader in steep decline” claim got any foundation? In a feature on David Cameron and Tories in the Observer Andrew Rawnsley made this assertion – the peg for most of the article:- “To the concern of his circle, there are already signs that his novelty is wearing thin. His personal approval ratings are in steep decline.” This has sparked off much discussion on the site and in a number of Lib Dem blogs particularly those that backed…
But who is right in the battle of the seat predictors? The latest prediction from Martin Baxter – the ex-Cambridge and now City mathematician who runs the Electoral Calculus site – suggests that the next General Election would produce a Commons with CON 305 (+107): LAB 285 (-71): LD 24 (-38) seats. This would leave the Tories on the current boundaries 19 MPs short of an overall majority. Martin produces his prediction from a “poll of polls” that he maintains…
Did the pollster find out something that is politically inconvenient? Last week the internet pollster, YouGov, carried out what appears to have been its first ever media-commissioned survey of Labour party members. These party-specific polls have proved to be extraordinarily valuable in the past – so much so that in the Tory leadership races of 2001 and 2005 YouGov got the final results to within 1%. But at the weekend there was just a fleeting reference to the survey in…
Yet another poll shows the Lib Dems on the decline After yesterday’s Mori poll – which was actually the pollster’s survey for May, we now have the first of the June polls – from Populus in the Times. The figures, are with changes on a month ago, CON 37%(-1):LAB 34%(+4): LD18%(-2). After the May survey which was the first big move to the Tories I noted here “The interviews will have been taking place over the weekend while all the…
Boost for Cameron as he reflects on his first six months in the job A Mori poll in the Sun this morning has some remarkably good news for David Cameron as he ends his first half year as leader. The projected vote shares are with the changes on last month are: CON 41%(+5), LAB 31%(-1), LD 18%(-3). Such vote shares at a General Election would, according to the Baxter calculator, produce a Commons of CON 344 seats: LAB 251: LD…
But what if the poll is as accurate as the Hartlepool one? An opinion poll by NOP for ITV isuggests that Labour is on target to win back what was its safest seat in Wales – Blaenau Gwent – in the coming parliamentary by-election. Such a result would restore Labour’s Commons majority to what it was before the Dunfermline loss and ease some of the jitters within the party. In a phone survey of with a sample of 1,000 NOP…