Are we going to get a poll that will confirm or refute Frank Luntz? In terms of political betting the key focus this morning is not on anything coming out of the Tories at Bournemouth – but on whether Gordon Brown will face a serious challenge in his quest to succeed Tony Blair and if so by whom? For we are talking here about who will be the next Prime Minister and we might get a better indication of how…
Meanwhile the young leader plans to attack Brown for being “weak” There’ll be a bit of a relief as the Tories gather in Bournemouth this morning that the second poll to come out since the Labour conference still has the party in the lead. The survey by ICM in the Sunday Mirror, has with changes on the last poll by the firm CON 36 (nc): LAB 35 (+3): LD 19 (-3). Fieldwork began on Thursday, a day later than yesterday’s…
Lib Dems suffer most from Blair farewell conference boost On Tuesday in the aftermath of Tony Blair’s extraordinary farewell speech I predicted here that this would “give the party a small but significant boost in the polls and … might even see Labour back into the lead..” And so it has happened. A Yougov survey for the Telegraph that was mostly carried out in the immediate aftermath of the Blair speech has these shares this morning with comparisons on their…
Blair and Reid the big movers For all the reported infighting at Labour’s Manchester conference the latest BrandIndex figures from YouGov show a boost for all the main party leaders during the week. These are based on five-day rolling averages of more than 600 online interviews a day until yesterday – so the full impact will not be seen until after the weekend. John Reid, who spoke yesterday, got a huge boost and if that continues over the next few…
New polling innovation shows problem for Ming as well In a major new way of presenting and collating polling information the detailed data from Friday’s ICM September poll in the Guardian, just out, gives a breakdown of what people will do based on how they voted in the 2005 General Election. The news is not good for the Fife neighbours, Gordon Brown and Ming Campbell. For only three out of five people who voted Labour in 2005 told ICM they…
But 70% of voters say it’s “time for change” With the Labour Conference due to start in Manchester on Sunday the first of several polls this weekend, ICM for the Guardian, shows little change on the last survey by the pollster last weekend. The party shares are: CON 36%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LD 22%(+1). The finding that should really worry Labour is that 70% of those in the survey said they thought is was “time for change”, if there were a…
The betting markets move to a later departure date With Tony Blair preparing for his final Labour conference as party leader there was a nugget of good news for him in the detailed data, now available, from the latest ICM poll. For when asked “Who do you think will make a better Prime Minister, Gordon Brown or Tony Blair?” the poll came out 40-30% for Tony. But even more significantly the declared Labour supporters in the sample went 61% for…
Tory ICM lead down to just 4% With the annual party conference season getting under way this morning there’s a an ICM poll in the Sunday Mirror that should steady the nerves of Labour and probably help Gordon Brown in his bid to succeed Tony Blair. The shares are with changes on the last ICM poll three weeks ago CON 37 (-3): LAB 33 (+2): LD 21 (-1). From a Labour perspective a four point margin is manageable and does…