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Category: Polls

Is it time for Gordon to be biting his nails?

Is it time for Gordon to be biting his nails?

Does more polling bad news make him less certain for leader? The final poll of this survey rich week has seen another poor performance for Labour, more terrible figures for the Lib Dems. and the Tories consolidating a significant lead. The shares in YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph with comparisons on the last poll a month ago are CON 39% (+3): LAB 32% (-4): LD 16 (nc). The YouGov figures reinforce the polls on Tuesday and Wednesday from Communicate…

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Is this what happened to Labour’s tax attack dog?

Is this what happened to Labour’s tax attack dog?

Why couldn’t the Brownites cash in on the Tory tax plan cock-up? On Sunday when I was planning the week ahead on the site I was convinced that the following days might see the moment when the Cameron band-wagon would drive to a halt. For judging by the weekend press reports Gordon Brown’s team had been absolutely cock a hoot over the way they had derailed last week’s Tory tax commission announcement and had got David Cameron and George Osborne…

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Massive boost for Cameron from ICM

Massive boost for Cameron from ICM

The Guardian’s pollster shows the party has a 10% lead The vote shares in this month’s ICM poll for the Guardian are just out and show a big move away from Labour with the party down below 30%. The actual vote shares are with changes on the last survey from the pollster taken just after the Tory party conference CON 39 (+1): LAB 29 (-3): LD 22 (+2). The movements are in line with yesterday’s Communicate Research survey and compare…

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Communicate Research puts Labour 6% behind

Communicate Research puts Labour 6% behind

The Independent’s pollster has the Lib Dems on just 14% Gloom for Labour and the Lib Dems and a boost for the Tories is the message from this morning’s poll in the Independent from Communicate Research – which has not had a published a national voting intention survey since last year’s General Election. The headline figures – CON 38%: LAB 32%: LD 14% – show a very high proportion of respondents going for other parties. Just under 1,000 people were…

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Mori poll gloom for Cameron

Mori poll gloom for Cameron

Labour move to 2% lead Partial details of the Mori poll for October are just out and show the Tories unchanged at 35% but Labour moving up a point to 37%. The online version of the FT, which is reporting the survey, does not include a figure for the Lib Dems. It will be recalled that last month Mori became the only pollster since April to report a Labour lead. Since then there have been other surveys showing the Tories…

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How did unadjusted polls impact on the politics of the 1990s?

How did unadjusted polls impact on the politics of the 1990s?

ICM solves the great historical polling mystery. On Monday evening there was a vigorous debate on the site after I published an article on how a 3% lead in the ICM poll of October 1993 had been listed in Mori table of all polls as a 15% margin. Some people just did not believe it because the recall of many from that period was of mega Labour leads. This has become highly relevant today with many comparing the current Tory…

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Labour move to within 1% with Populus

Labour move to within 1% with Populus

But Labour’s deficit is 8% with Brown/Cameron named as leaders The first fully post-conference season poll to be carried out, that for Populus in the Times this morning, has Labour moving to within just one point of the Tories. The shares with changes on the last Populus poll a month ago are: CON 36% (nc): LAB 35% (+3): LD 18% (-2). In the same October survey in 2005 which took place after the Tory conference in Blackpool had been dominating…

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ICM gives the Tories a 6% lead

ICM gives the Tories a 6% lead

..and Brown trails 11% on “who would be best PM” In the first public poll after the conference season ICM in the Sunday Telegraph is reporting a big increase in the Tory lead and some poor figures for the Chancellor over “who would make the best Prime Minister”. The shares with comparisons on the last ICM poll a week ago are CON 38% (+2): LAB 32% (-3): LD 20%(+1). This is the second biggest lead that the pollster has had…

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