But poll junkies will have to wait for YouGov I was expecting to be leading this morning on the November YouGov poll which invariably features in the Daily Telegraph on the final Friday of each month. Well it does not appear to be there but for those those who need their regular “fix” of polling information we do have the full dataset from this week’s ICM survey for the Guardian. The main point from these numbers is that they reinforce…
But the Tory lead widens to 8% with Brown as Labour leader The headline General Election voting intention figures show a big improvement for Labour in this month’s ICM poll in the Guardian. The shares are with the changes on October CON 37% (-2): LAB 32% (+3): LD 22% (nc). This brings the pollster more into line with the other firms but still contrasts sharply with the 5% Labour lead in the same survey a year ago two weeks before…
Mori puts Brown 16% ahead of Reid for the leadership Partial details of the Mori survey for November have just been published on the Mori website and from the information that has been made available it looks as though there has been a steep decline in Labour support since October. Although we have not got the party shares the detail shows that 248 of the 980 who were surveyed said Labour with 466 saying other parties. By my calculation this…
Was Blair doing the Chancellor a favour with his fighting imagery? As often happens in politics the initial reaction to a development or a speech can change quite drastically within a few days. Last Wednesday Tony Blair’s farewell Commons performance in a Queen’s speech debate was well received by commentators particularly his “put down” of David Cameron by threatening him with a “big fist” – a move seen as an endorsement of Gordon Brown. By yesterday there had been a…
New polls dash hopes for the White House losers of 2000 and 2004 In the first round of ’08 White House polls since the US midterms there’s good news for Rudy Giuliani, John McCain ,Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama but bad news for the vote winner but electoral college loser of 2000, Al Gore, and the man who went to bed on November 4th 2004 believing the exit polls meant he was next President, John Kerry. With tight races for…
A timely reminder from two years ago At 1.05am EST on November 3rd 2004 the US news channel, CNN, showed the above graphic on the screen illustrating the result of an exit poll in Ohio, the key state that Senator John Kerry had to win if he was to beat George W. Bush for the Presidency. The message was clear. Kerry was ahead in Ohio and the chances were that the state would give him enough votes in the electoral…
Is this the result of Murdoch’s ferocious attacks on the Tory leader After a week which has seen savage criticism by the Murdoch press on David Cameron and positive media coverage generally of Gordon Brown the November Populus poll in the Times shows the following shares with changes on last month – CON 36% (nc): LAB 33% (-2): LD20 % (+2). So the trend is in line with recent YouGov, ICM and Communicate Research polls but with the Tory margin…
Will Populus record a Brown leadership bounce? For polling geeks like me the next few surveys are going to be fascinating and might be good pointers to the future. For the transition from Tony to Gordon is well under way and he’s now being portrayed daily in the media mostly in a positive light as the PM in waiting. If there is going to be a Brown succession bounce then we might see the first signs of it. This could…