Survey shows the gap down to just 1% with the Chancellor in charge This morning’s Populus survey in the Times shows that all the pundits who were predicting poll doom and gloom for Labour in the polls because of Blair’s position had got it wrong. The shares with changes on January are: CON 36% (-3): LAB 33% (+1): LD 19% (+1). The fieldwork took place during the weekend when the media was full of honours stories. Even better from the…
It’s rubbish to say the changes hand the advantage over to the Tories This story by Colin Brown in the Independent is typical of some of the coverage that we’ve seen over the weekend on the impact of the boundary changes on the next General Election. Labour goes into the next election still with a massive advantage – it is just that it isn’t quite as big as was before. What’s happened is that there’s now the “official” version of…
What poll news would be the “tipping point” for the Prime Minister? On the first floor of this ordinary looking office block next door to the Job Centre in Bedford is a 100 station calling centre operated by the pollster, ICM. It’s the firm’s largest facility and is where a whole or a large part of the field-work for not just ICM polls takes place. For it might come as a surprise to learn that ICM carries out surveying work…
Best to wait until we’ve seen how they’ve done the calculations There’s a poll with, apparently, some sensational figures from Communicate Research in the Independent this morning but judging by Andrew Grice’s accompanying report by and the quoted party shares there is something not quite right. The voting intention shares with changes on December are CON 34% (-2): LAB 29% (-8) LD 21% (+7). So Ming’s party is up half again on the figure it recorded just five weeks ago….
Why is UKIP failing to improve its poll ratings? By any standards it’s been a big month for the United Kingdom Independence Party and its outspoken leader Nigel Farage. For during January the party has seen more coverage than at any time since June 2004 when it pushed the Lib Dems into fourth place in the Euro Elections. For UKIP has taken on a role much bigger than just opposing Britain’s membership of the EU – it’s now become the…
But the Telegraph describes a 7% Tory lead as “evenly joined” After last week’s ICM poll in the Guardian which had the Lib Dems moving up a massive five points to a 23% share there’s more good news for Ming Campbell’s party in this morning’s January YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph. These are the figures compared with the last survey by the pollster before Xmas. Con 38% (+1) Lab 31% (-1) LD 18% (+3). (Note the comparisons are with…
For polling anoraks one of the great joys of each new survey is being able to look at the detailed data. Quite often you can pick up trends and other findings that have not been included in the newspaper reports. As a good example the table is a snapshot from the detailed data of the January poll for the Guardian which has just been published by ICM. It shows the cross-voting and changes when the named leader question was put….
The Guardian’s pollster has the Lib Dems going up five points The monthly ICM survey for the Guardian which has been going continuously for nearly a quarter of a century records a sharp jump for the Lib Dems and shows that the Labour deficit would be bigger if Gordon Brown was leader. The main vote shares are with changes on December – CON 37% (-3): LAB 31% (-1): LD 23% (+5). When the second question was asked – how would…