On a day like today it is perhaps worth recalling one of the worst polls ever for the Tories – this the January 1995 survey for the Daily Telegraph by Gallup. This poll did not use past vote weighting to ensure a politically balanced sample. Just four days after the fieldwork for Gallup was completed ICM began their January 1995 poll for the Guardian. When the past vote weighting adjustments were made this came up with CON 30: LAB 48:…
Will Labour MPs respond to the Guardian’s call for Brown to be challenged? This is the front page of the Guardian that will be screaming out across newstands throughout the UK this morning and it looks as though it has been designed deliberately to make it as damaging as possible for the Chancellor. For as any newspaper man or woman will tell you it is what appears “above the fold” that matters – and with the numbers 29-42 splashed there…
..and the pollster reports a 13% lead if it’s Cameron vs Brown A huge boost for David Cameron’s Tories is reported to be in tomorrow’s ICM poll for the Guardian. According to CONHome the figures are with changes on last month CON 40 (+3): LAB 31 (nc): LD 19% (-4). This is only the third time that ICM has recorded a 40% share or more for the Tories in a decade and a half and the nine point margin puts…
The Sun Shines on Johnson One highlight in another generally quiet week was the Sun’s support for Deputy Leadership candidate, Alan Johnson. Never underestimate the influence of the old currant bun. He’s this week’s best buy – 2 points at 83.3 The other best values are probably to be found amongst the ‘sells’. Look for those who are having a bit of a quiet time. Hilary Benn fits the bill, especially as he starts from a high perch; Tony Blair…
Populus finds that “his refusal to discuss” has big public backing A total of 81% of those interviewed in a new Populus poll in the Times this morning agreed that “it does not matter if Mr Cameron smoked cannabis when he was at school or university.” In a second question 85% agreed “that he should not be expected to answer detailed questions about whether he tried drugs in his youth because all politicians are entitled to have made mistakes when…
What’s the basis of the Tories being favourites? The chart shows the changing prices on the Tories and Labour winning most seats at the next general election. As can be seen Labour was seen by punters as being in a very strong position and was favourite in the betting right until May-June of last year. The Tory sentiment reached its peak at the end of October and since then the prices have got much closer. This morning you can get…
Is now the time to bet on a hung parliament? A new YouGov poll for today’s Sunday Times shows a small movement from the Tories to Labour and that the “others” total remains constant. These are today’s shares with comparisons on the last YouGov poll at the end of January: CON 37% (-1): LAB 32% (+1): LD 18% (nc): OTH 13% (nc). Putting these numbers into the seat calculators produces a CON 277: LAB 294: LD 47: OTH 32 seat…
Why don’t voters believe that he’s telling the truth? This single line of data from the Populus poll for February could point to the first big challenge for Brown in the post-Blair world. For if the Yates inquiry does lead to charges then the line-up of opposition attack dogs – from the Tories to the Lib Dems, the SNP and PC – will have no real interest in Blair himself. He’s yesterday’s man and toast. The big target will be…