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Category: Polls

Populus puts Labour at its lowest ever level

Populus puts Labour at its lowest ever level

But are the Labour succession details being held over? The Times Populus survey for April is out this morning and shows that Labour is at its lowest ever level with the pollster. The only consolation for Blair-Brown is that the deficit behind the Tories has remained the same. The headline figures are with comparisons on last month: CON 37%(-1): LAB 29%(-1): LD 20% (+2). There’s no sign in the report of responses to the named leader question – how people…

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Could the pollsters be overstating the SNP again?

Could the pollsters be overstating the SNP again?

Are both Labour and the Tories be doing better than the surveys suggest? With the Scottish elections less than three weeks away and almost all the polls pointing to the SNP finishing up as top party in the Scottish Parliament it is perhaps worth looking at the record of polling in Scotland. For as the above table on how the pollsters fared in 2003 illustrates there is a strong tendency for all the firms to over-state the SNP vote. Could…

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Could the 78 year old Le Pen be the spoiler again?

Could the 78 year old Le Pen be the spoiler again?

How much are the polls understating the far-right leader? With the immigrant background of front runner in the race for the French Presidency, Nicolas Sarkozy, being made into an issue by Jean-Marie Le Pen the polls have been reporting a steady rise in support for the Front National leader. Recent surveys have had him in the region 13% to 17% which is substantially up on where he was at this stage in the 2002 elections. Last time, it will be…

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Playing today – the election pollsters like to forget

Playing today – the election pollsters like to forget

When a 1% Tory polling deficit became an 8% lead On the eve of the fifteenth anniversary of John Major’s shock general election victory in 1992 the BBC Parliament channel is devoting most of its bank holiday schedule to showing the BBC’s results programme from that night. It’s available online as well as via Freeview, satellite and cable. It starts at 9am and is repeated at 2pm and 7pm. Even though it’s a decade and a half ago Nick Sparrow,…

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Sunday poll gloom for Gordon (Updated 0315)

Sunday poll gloom for Gordon (Updated 0315)

ICM and YouGov report on the damage of the pension row Two polls by YouGov and ICM that will appear tomorrow in Rupert Murdoch’s Sunday papers, the News of the World and the Sunday Times show the damage to Gordon Brown’s reputation that the row over the 1997 pension changes has caused. Reports of what’s in the papers are just emerging but these seem to be the main highlights:- GB “Good or bad chancellor?” 52% of those surveyed by YouGov…

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Polling analysis: Where Tony outpoints Dave

Polling analysis: Where Tony outpoints Dave

Is Blair set for a pre-exit polling renaissance? In the latest BrandIndex figures that are on the YouGov site Tony Blair is enjoying what equal his best figures yet since this data started coming out. Last week we commented that he had moved off the bottom level for the first time ever and the latest data shows that he is now 2.5% off the wooden spoon position. Added to that is the detailed data from the latest YouGov poll reproduced…

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Which poll will Gordon pick this morning?

Which poll will Gordon pick this morning?

Tory CR lead slashed as Populus predicts a Scottish Labour collapse The first two of three polls which are expected today have produced good and bad news for Labour. Communicate Research for the Independent has the following shares with comparisons on a month ago CON 35% (-5): LAB 31% (+2): LD 20% (+3). Populus for the Times on May’s Scottish election has SNP 38%: LAB 28%: LD 15%: CON 14% in the constituency section. On the regional list it is…

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Peter the Punter’s BrandIndex Pointers

Peter the Punter’s BrandIndex Pointers

This Week – Make Hay from Straw No surprise that we’re leading off this week with man of the moment, Jack Straw. It seems to us he suddenly has everything going for him – campaign leader, the promise of High Office and the opportunity, as a former Foreign Secretary, to pronounce weightily on the Iran crisis. He looks a snip at 76.2. Buy two points. Tony Blair’s rise in the popularity chart shows no sign of stopping. He led us…

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