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Category: Polls

What will this building have in store for Gordon?

What will this building have in store for Gordon?

How is the new “humble” Brown going down with the voters? So far we have not had a proper polling reaction to the “wall-to-wall” Brown coverage that seems to have been dominating the TV screens since the Chancellor launched his campaign for the leadership last Friday. Yesterday’s YouGov poll was carried out last Thursday and Friday when Blair’s historic departure speech was dominating the headlines and only a proportion of the pollster’s internet voting panel will have completed their online…

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Is Ming set to be the first loser of the Brown era?

Is Ming set to be the first loser of the Brown era?

Will the anti-Blair factions move back when Gordon’s in charge All the focus from this morning’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has been on the relationship between Labour and the Tories and what happens when the party leaders are named. One number, however, is missing from the on-line reports of the survey – and this could make grim reading for the Lib Dems. The main numbers, as reported in the previous article had CON 38, LAB 34, LD 15,…

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Was Newsnight peddling an old poll?

Was Newsnight peddling an old poll?

Why you should always look at the survey dates? BBC’s Newsnight programme made a big deal last night about an “exclusive poll” that it had commissioned on perceptions of Gordon Brown and David Cameron. This was how the programme billed the survey on its website “Friday – Gordon Brown launches his leadership campaign; and Newsnight has a specially commissioned poll.” It was presented as though it was up to date information although there was a tell-tale line in very small…

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Thread 2: Do the locals tell us much about a general election?

Thread 2: Do the locals tell us much about a general election?

Can we extrapolate in the way the Sunday Times does? Both the Sunday Times and the Sunday Telegraph carry projections this morning about what Thursday’s results would mean in general election terms. In the Telegraph Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde suggests that the CON-LAB-LD split was 40%-27%-26% which he suggests would give the Tories an overall majority of 20 seats. The Sunday Times projection of a 54 overall seat for the Tories is based on work by Professors Colin Rallings…

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Who’ll win the polling battle of Scotland?

Who’ll win the polling battle of Scotland?

Are punters right to put their money on YouGov? For nearly six years a battle has reigned in the UK polling industry over the internet pollster, YouGov, which first appeared at the 2001 General election and has now become a serious force within the industry. It’s methodologies have been very different and has attracted an enormous amount of criticism – usually from parties which have not shown up well in its surveys. In the run-up to the 2005 General Election…

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Will retaining Scotland be Blair’s final victory?

Will retaining Scotland be Blair’s final victory?

Could Tony’s leadership close with a dramatic triumph? Two polls by mainstream pollsters suggest that Labour is closing in on the SNP in the final phase of tomorrow’s Scottish election and hold out the prospect of Blair’s premiership ending on an electoral high. As has often been said here – “nobody ever got rich betting against Tony” ICM in the Scotsman found that the SNP is still ahead – by 2 per cent on the constituency vote and 1 per…

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How much can we trust the Scottish polls?

How much can we trust the Scottish polls?

Have the “funny surveys” been over-stating Labour? The table has been adapted from Wikipedia and shows the incredible variation in the polling surveys of the regional or list vote ahead of next Thursday’s crucial election for the Scottish Parliament. On the one hand there have been the surveys by those pollsters which are listed as members of the British Polling Council which are required as part of their membership to follow strict transparency rules. Within two working days of a…

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Is the gap too wide for Sego?

Is the gap too wide for Sego?

Should Sarky backers worry about polling creep? Taking the polls as a whole it’s clear that there has been a slight erosion in Nicholas Sarkozy’s lead since his triumph in the first round of voting last Sunday. This has been reflected in the betting in the UK. In the immediate aftermath of Sunday’s voting Ségolène Royal moved out to about 3.7/1. That’s been edging back gently and is now at 3.1/1. If the daily poll from Ipsos – the pollster…

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