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Category: Polls

Will you bet that the “named leader” question is wrong?

Will you bet that the “named leader” question is wrong?

Why’s Labour deficit 6% bigger when the leaders are mentioned As predicted here on Monday there has been a move back to Labour on the general election betting markets in response to the improving poll situation – seen overnight in the May survey for the Guardian. That Labour are now just 2% behind the Tories has seen some movement to Brown’s party on the betting markets – though there has been very light trading. Labour has tightened from 1.54/1 just…

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Should we believe CONhome’s home-made polls?

Should we believe CONhome’s home-made polls?

When is the media going to challenge Montgomerie about his statistics? As far as I can see the otherewse excellent CONhome website is not a member of the British Polling Council – the body that operates the code or practice that all the serious pollsters belong. The body imposes a transparency regime which means that anybody who is interested can work out exactly how the numbers that are produced have been worked out. This was introduced three years ago and…

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Who comes best out of this Mori poll?

Who comes best out of this Mori poll?

Is it best to have your leader not liked or your party? The Ipsos-Mori polling firm has just put up on its website full details of the poll that partly appeared in the Observer yesterday. To me the most interesting new findings are those reproduced above which show vividly the challenges faced by the the Tories and Labour as we enter the new political era. For the Tory brand is still contaminated but Cameron’s party can take some heart from…

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This is the market that should be on Betfair

This is the market that should be on Betfair

Is there any value in what Ladbrokes are offering? Tomorrow morning I’ve been invited to meet senior bosses at Betfair to discuss political betting issues in a session that PB regular, Nick Palmer MP, helped to arrange. One of the items on my agenda will be the lacklustre markets that the exchange now offers and to suggest that it might like to run something similar to what Ladbrokes are offering on which of the three party leaders will be first…

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Is Benn about to be boosted by a new poll?

Is Benn about to be boosted by a new poll?

What’s behind these latest market moves? As the chart shows there’s been a big shift to Benn on the deputy leader market in the past few hours. Could it be that a new poll is about to come out that will reinforce Benn’s campaign? I don’t know but this just looks as though someone has some knowledge. Mike Smithson

Can Alan Johnson prove YouGov wrong?

Can Alan Johnson prove YouGov wrong?

Is the Education secretary worth his favourite status? After getting the most MP nominations for Labour deputy Alan Johnson has become the early favourite and although his price has eased a touch the best that can be had is 2.1/1. Yet the problem Johnson faces is that Labour MPs only represent a third of the electoral college that will decide the job – another third being the party membership at large and the final third being trade unionists who pay…

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Can Ming go on withstanding all the pressure?

Can Ming go on withstanding all the pressure?

Could the party lose two leaders in the same parliament? The power of the media to frame the agenda by deciding what is asked in opinion polls is shown vividly this morning with the top political story in the Times being the findings from the second part of its monthly Populus poll. Yesterday we saw that all the rise in Labour support has been at the expense of the Lib Dems which dropped from 20% to 17% – the second…

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Populus: Labour moves forward at the LD’s expense

Populus: Labour moves forward at the LD’s expense

But the Tories return to 42% on the named leader question The May Populus survey for the Times, out this morning shows a biggish swing from the Lib Dems to Labour but with the Tory share remaining static. The headline numbers with changes on last month are CON 37% (nc): LAB 33% (+4): LD 17% which, if repeated at a general election would produce a hung parliament with Labour having most seats. But when the “named leader” question was asked…

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