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Category: Polls

Will Gord’s polling bounce be as big as Dave’s?

Will Gord’s polling bounce be as big as Dave’s?

Should gamblers be betting on Labour moving back into the lead? On November 22nd 2005, just two weeks before David Cameron was crowned as Tory leader Mori was showing Labour with a 42%-32% lead over the Tories. On December 12th, less than a week after the Tory leadership election result, the pollster had a CON-LAB split of 40%-31%. So Cameron’s Mori “bounce” was a staggering 19%. If the arrival of Gordon as leader and Prime Minister was to have the…

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Obama edges ahead of Clinton in new poll

Obama edges ahead of Clinton in new poll

In a big polling turnaround in the race for the White House the black senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, has now edged past Hillary Clinton in a poll on the Democratic nomination. This is only the second time that Obama has enjoyed such a poll lead. In the survey Obama is ahead of Clinton by a single percentage point, 30%-29%, if the contest includes former vice president turned Oscar winner, Al Gore. However if Gore is not there the poll…

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Labour gets one point closer with Populus

Labour gets one point closer with Populus

The public, but not Tories, support Dave’s grammar school stance The only movement in the June survey by Populus for the Times is a one point decrease in the Tory share bringing the lead over Labour down to just 3%. The shares with changes on last month are: CON 36%(-1): LAB 33% (nc): LD 17% (nc). The fieldwork took place over the weekend and the Tories will probably be relieved that they’ve survived almost intact. Labour might have been hoping…

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Tory ICM lead increases by 3% in spite of grammar row

Tory ICM lead increases by 3% in spite of grammar row

Is the Cameron bike back on the road? Two threads this morning with the publication of two key polls – one from ICM on national voting intention and a YouGov survey of Labour and TU members ahead of the deputy leadership election. After a period of solid good media coverage for Labour and two weeks of public infighting amongst the Tories over the grammar school row the ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph this morning shows a huge boost for…

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Big move to Alan Johnson in the deputy race

Big move to Alan Johnson in the deputy race

This survey, in the Sunday Times today, clearly is a big boost for the education secretary, Alan Johnson, who will surely now move into the favourite slot. My only observation is that the poll closed on May 29th before the big Newsnight debate and is a bit old. Johnson will surely move in the betting. Mike Smithson

Could the exhaustive ballot favour a woman?

Could the exhaustive ballot favour a woman?

Should you cover yourself on Harman/Blears? Even though the latest YouGov Labour members poll on the deputy leadership battle closed on Monday there’s no sign yet of the findings being published. In any case the survey took place before Tuesday’s key televised hustings which might have had an impact. Meanwhile I have been going back over the polling data that we do have to see if there are any further clues that might point to the winner. For, as many…

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Thread one – new poll shows big Labour progress

Thread one – new poll shows big Labour progress

Brown’s party moves up four points and more gloomy news for Ming A two thread day on PBC with news of the new poll here and the betting reaction to the Newsnight Deputy Leader hustings below. The May Communicate Research poll for the Independent shows a big boost for Labour this morning up four points from the 27% share that the pollster recorded in May. These are the figures with changes from last month: CON 35% (-1): LAB 31% (+4):…

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Could YouGov’s approach be understating the Brown bounce?

Could YouGov’s approach be understating the Brown bounce?

What happens if you don’t measure “likelihood to vote”? One of the most important questions asked by four the five pollsters that regularly carry out national voting intention surveys in the UK – ICM, Populus, Ipsos-Mori and Communicate Research – is how likely it is that respondents will actually vote. Those surveyed are asked to rate, usually on a scale of 1-10, how likely it is that they will turn out and these answers play a huge part in determining…

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