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Category: Polls

Could Gordon have a 10% lead with Populus?

Could Gordon have a 10% lead with Populus?

Will Roger be proved right in tomorrow’s poll? The boss of Populus, Andrew Cooper, has just confirmed to me that their monthly survey for the Times has taken place a little earlier this month and should be appearing in the paper tomorrow. Normally fieldwork starts over the first weekend over the month and that would normally have meant next week. The survey was carried out from Friday to Sunday so that the majority of the 1,500 respondents will have been…

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What happens when Cameron’s on the telly again?

What happens when Cameron’s on the telly again?

Could now be the moment to sell Labour? Over the past six months I’ve been trying to make money on the general election spread markets by buying and selling the number of Labour seats. The art is to try to anticipate the polls because they drive punter sentiment. And what drives the polls, of course, is the media and we have just gone through almost two months when Labour has been almost the only story in town. Once the novelty…

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The Brown Era – the opening prices

The Brown Era – the opening prices

Will he lead Labour to a fourth victory This post is partly for the record so that we can refer back to what the betting prices on the next general election were within Gordon’s first hour at Number 10. I must admit that I cannot read this and I have now closed down the buy spread bet on Labour which I bought a month ago at 271 seats. Will he do it? Will Cameron return to the early form? I’m…

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Now YouGov has the Lib Dems down at 12%

Now YouGov has the Lib Dems down at 12%

Can Ming’s by election team prove the polls wrong? A new YouGov poll for Sky News which was published overnight has the Lib Dems at their worst ever figure from the firm – even below the last low point of 13% in January 2006 in a survey taken after the Mark Oaten and Simon Hughes tabloid revelations. The figures are with changes on the last YouGov poll in the Sun Times a week and a half ago are: CON 37%…

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Tory lead moves to 5% with Communicate Research

Tory lead moves to 5% with Communicate Research

Has Brown been hurt by the Ashdown cabinet row? With every bit of detail in every poll being scrutinised to the nth degree at the moment there’s very disappointing news for Labour this morning with the June poll by Communicate Research in the Independent. After the Ipsos-Mori survey showing them 3% they must have been hoping that other pollsters would follow suit. The topline CR figures with with changes from May survey are CON 37%(+2): LAB 32%(+1): LD 18%(-1) –…

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What are the betting lessons of yesterday?

What are the betting lessons of yesterday?

When following the polls and the markets can be expensive? If things had been going to plan I would have spent yesterday in Manchester with the Sky News team acting as one of Adam Boulton’s pundits at the Labour leadership conference. Thankfully circumstances prevented the trip because otherwise I might have been associated with the TV station’s wrong call, along with the Daily Telegraph, that Alan Johnson had won. For it’s all too easy to get carried away with what…

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Will this help Gordon on the election date?

Will this help Gordon on the election date?

What happened when Major replaced Maggie The table which I have adapted from the ICM web-site shows what happened to the party ratings in the ICM Guardian polls before and after John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher in November 1990. Polling, of course, was very different in those days and nothing like as accurate as it is today. Major went on to win the 1992 general election with an 8% lead on the national vote – something that none of the…

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Labour now three points ahead with Mori

Labour now three points ahead with Mori

Should Gordon be thinking of a July election? This month’s monthly Ipsos-Mori survey, published in the Observer this morning, underlines how well Labour is doing following nearly seven weeks of almost uninterrupted positive media coverage. These are the figures compared with the May survey which was published first on Politicalbetting – CON 36% (-1): LAB 39% (+4): LD 15% (-3). Like most of Mori’s major polls the survey was carried out using face to face interviews and took place over…

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