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Category: Polls

October or not? – a new ICM poll doesn’t help

October or not? – a new ICM poll doesn’t help

Labour’s lead moves from 8% to 6% The main driver of the week’s heightened speculation that Brown would chance everything on an October election was the Guardian’s ICM poll on Wednesday showing the Labour lead moving up three points to 8%. Today a new poll from the same pollster in the Sunday Mirror has that down to 6% which while not very significant in itself could affect the mood and particularly the sentiment on the betting markets. As I reported…

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Has Brown got big enough leads to outshine Tony?

Has Brown got big enough leads to outshine Tony?

Will today’s YouGov poll dampen the election speculation? The promised YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph is out this morning and the numbers are nothing like the ones that the hoaxer, cj, tried to suggest on the site overnight Thursday-Friday. He is now banned permanently from publishing comments here. The shares are with changes on the last YouGov poll at the weekend – CON 33%(-1): LAB 39%(nc): LD 16%(+1). So not much change except a one point boost for the…

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Does 1992 still haunt Labour and Brown?

Does 1992 still haunt Labour and Brown?

Could the polls be so wrong again? Above is a picture of the famous speech by the then Labour leader, Neil Kinnock, at the Sheffield party rally a week before polling day on April 9th 1992. The polls were looking good for the party and it really did seem that the Tory government that had been in office since May 1979 was at last going to be beaten. In the days leading up to the rally two polls from ICM…

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Massive ICM blow for Cameron and the Tories

Massive ICM blow for Cameron and the Tories

Does this make an October election a possibility again? It’s 3am as I write and my first action before starting this piece was to open up my Spreadfair account and buy Labour at the 310 seat level on the general election spread market. The latest Guardian ICM poll is out and shows Labour with their biggest lead from the pollster since September 2005 three months before David Cameron became leader. These are the shares with changes on the last ICM…

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Labour’s YouGov lead down a touch to 8%

Labour’s YouGov lead down a touch to 8%

Is the Lib Dem share of 14% down to the firm’s methodology? In the first of four major polling surveys that we will see in the next few days the internet pollster, YouGov, for the Daily Telegraph has the following shares with the changes on its last poll almost three weeks ago CON 33% (+1): LAB 41% (-1): LD 14% (nc). So the Tories will be a touch relieved that like ICM on Monday YouGov is showing a reduction in…

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Labour’s ICM lead now 5%

Labour’s ICM lead now 5%

The Tories up a point on a fortnight ago It’s multi-Gordons once again this morning but only half the number that accompanied the last poll, YouGov’s 10% lead, and one less than when the pollster, ICM, last carried out a survey two weeks ago. The fieldwork for the firm’s August survey for the Guardian finished four days ago on Thursday so is already a little out of date. It won’t have been affected by the Liverpool shooting which has been…

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The polling famine is nearly over

The polling famine is nearly over

The Guardian’s August ICM survey should be out this weekend After two weeks without any national voting intention surveys – a period which has seen intense speculation about how the main parties are doing in the new political context – I am advised that we should see results from the Guardian’s August ICM “over the weekend”. That’s likely to mean either tomorrow or on Bank Holiday Monday. The paper’s uninterrupted polling series with ICM is the longest running in the…

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Is YouGov 10% contributing to GB’s referendum trap?

Is YouGov 10% contributing to GB’s referendum trap?

Can the leadership be challenged without Labour paying a price? Aside from the dramatic rise in street violence the issue that’s dominating the political scene is the growing threat of a revolt within the wider Labour movement over GB’s decision not to have a referendum on the EU treaty. There’s a report this morning that at least 40 Labour MPs are calling for talks on the EU plan to be re-opened and a number of unions are gathering forces ahead…

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