Dave appears on the polling graphic for the first time The ICM figures have now been revised and the shares from the latest polls are CON 38%(+5): LAB 38% (-1): LD 16% (-4) My guess is that in the rush to get the figures out not all the final aspects had been checked. Now it has and these will be really pleasing figures for the Tories. The general election date betting markets have seen a lot of movement and the…
The Times pollster reports a margin of just 3% The second poll of the night, just out, is from Populus for the Times and has these figures compared with the last survey at the weekend – CON 36% (+5): LAB 39% (-2): LD 15% (-2). This and ICM, expected later, are probably the most significant survey of the nights because they do weight by past vote and does weight by the likelihood to vote. A margin of 3% starts to…
And three other polls are on the way The first of a spate of polls that will come overnight has just been announced by Channel 4 news. These are the figures compared with the last poll from the firm last Saturday – CON 36%(+4): LAB 40%(-3): LD 13%(-2) Of course this followed the massive coverage of Blackpool and the good reception to Cameron’s speech. Will it be sustained? I don’t know. Other polls coming up overnight are Populus in the…
Marginals said to be “patchy and extremely tight” We are going to have to wait until this evening before we see the first post-Blackpool opinion poll and that should be from the YouGov panel on this evening’s Channel 4 News. But according to Steve Richards in the Independent the prospect of an early election has receded following the Tory conference and reaction to Cameron’s speech. He notes that Brown’s “inner circle is understood to have become more cautious about an…
When should we get the first measured reactions? Everybody has their own views of the speech but the people that will matter most in the next day or so are those chosen by the polling organisations to take part in their surveys. How will they react? Will their opinions of the parties be any different from the recent polls? Will Labour still be in a commanding position to launch a successful election campaign? My view is that we will see…
Should he have waited until he’d seen all the post-Blackpool polls? If we are to believe the Guardian this morning everything is now set for an announcement on Tuesday that there will be a general election on November 1st. A whole series of actions and other measures are being set in place to allow the time-table and it’s beginning to look like Europe in August 1914 when the momentum of activity would have made it almost impossible to stop the…
Could such a survey be the decider for Gord? For poll watchers last week’s Channel 4 News from the YouGov panel in the immediate aftermath of Brown’s speech was a great innovation. For it’s always been suggested that the publicity that leaders’ speeches attract do give a big boost in poll ratings but I cannot recall a time when we have been able see this from reaction within little more than 24 hours while the coverage was still dominating the…
Do people switch during polling interviews? I am grateful to Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report for picking up this oddity in the Ipsos-Mori poll. As can be seen two questions were asked – “How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?” and a second “And how would you vote if there were a General Election held later this Autumn?” For the former the widely reported headline figures had a 7% Labour lead. For the latter the…