Best Conservative score since 1992 with ICM An ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph has the Conservatives on 43, Labour on 36, and the Lib Dems on 14. Changes on the previous ICM poll are +5, -2, -2, representing a swing of 3.5% to the Tories. However, Brown still leads Cameron 52-32 on the strongest leader question, while Labour leads by 47-36 on the economy. Other findings are that 66 per cent of those surveyed want a referendum on the…
But those 40% plus Tory shares should be worrying Too often, I think, those with a passion for following the fortunes of our great parties seem to expect instant reactions from the polls to the events they see daily in the papers and on their TV screens. So Brown has been having a torrid few days and yet Labour is at 38% in the latest Mori poll trailing by just 3%. That could have been a lot worse and I…
Mori shows a 5% swing to the Tories since its last poll A Mori poll for the Sun shows the Conservatives on 41, Labour on 38, and the Lib Dems on 11, which represent changes of +7, -3, -5 since the last Mori poll taken shortly after Brown’s speech to the Labour conference. This is a swing of 5% to the Conservatives, although fieldwork dates remain to be confirmed. These figures are identical to the recent YouGov poll showing a…
Are the Lib Dems the big losers from the conference season? The regular monthly Populus poll for the Times is out this morning and the shares are, compared with the last survey from the firm last week CON 38%(+2): LAB 40%(+1): LD12%(-3). It is important to note that the fieldwork took place over three days, from Friday to Sunday, and all but 200 of the interviews had been carried out before news of Brown’s election retreat became known. The big…
The spread betting markets are unmoved For what must almost certainly be the first time ever Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus is putting the Lib Dems on zero seats for the next general election. This is based on feeding his weighted average of recent polls into his commons seat calculator. The result appears above. So if you believe it there’s a fortune to be made on the spread betting markets. The latest Lib Dem Spreadfair prices are SELL 46.5 seats and…
Was it the IHT changes or the speech that prompted the Tory bounce? There’s been a lot of commentary about what prompted the Tory polling surge with Labour saying it was the inheritance tax proposals that were the driving force. This appears to be just spin – and is not supported by the detailed data. The above is from yesterday’s Populus poll in the Times and records how voting intentions changed between those questioned before Cameron’s speech on Wednesday afternoon…
Can Gord call it off without being damaged? There can be absolutely no doubt that if it had not been for the post-Blackpool polls this weekend would effectively have been the first phase of the general election campaign. So much was in place, a series of key announcements has been careful choreographed and a date with Gord had been pencilled into the Queen’s diary. The big question is how can Brown now pull back from that position without suffering too…
And Lib Dems switch to the Tories – not Labour The boss of Populus, Andrew Cooper, has very kindly given me advanced sight of the detail from today’s poll in the Times and I reproduce part of it above. There are two main features:- A big disparity between the responses of Labour and Tory voters when it comes to their likelihood to vote and evidence that Labour is not picking up as many 2005 Lib Dem supporters as they had…