YouGov’s Tory lead moves from three to six per cent The second national voting intention survey since the Queen’s Speech has shown another biggish drop in the Labour share. These are the figures with comparisons on the last surveys from the pollster more than three weeks ago – CON 41% (nc): LAB 35% (-3): LD 13% (+2). This latest poll, for tomorrow’s Sunday Times means that Gordon Brown’s Labour has moved from an 11% margin to a 6% deficit in…
Are the silver voters behind the Tory surge? The weekend ICM poll for the Sunday Express poll was so exceptional that it is worth looking in some detail at the data which is now available. And the striking feature for me is the split amongst those aged 65 years and above – the pensioner group. For the 61% Tory score against 24% for Labour and just 7% for the Lib Dems is really quite amazing. Normally the older you are…
How the numbers show that he has a lot to smile about Judging by the latest round of press comment and the reaction to the polls you would have thought that Brown had brought his party to the point of electoral disaster with an inglorious election defeat being the only possible outcome. Yet are these perceptions correct? For the numbers suggest that under Gordon Labour’s polling position has been transformed with the number of people telling pollsters they would vote…
Cameron’s party now ahead on commons seats spread markets The main polling news overnight is a new ICM survey for the Sunday Express which has the following shares compared with the last poll by the firm nearly two weeks ago – CON 43% (+3): LAB 35% (nc): LD 15% (-3) So the main change is that three point shift from the Lib Dems to Cameron’s party reflecting, I would suggest, news coverage during the week following the Queen’s Speech. All…
Big boost for the Lib Dems Populus, the only pollster which recorded solid Labour leads since June, has continued to report a Labour margin in its latest survey for the Times. The figures are with changes on a month ago – CON 36%(-2): LAB 37%(-3): LD 16%(+4) This will bring a lot of comfort to the Brown camp after the polls from ICM, ComRes and Ipsos-MORI had Tory leads of 5-7%. Of all the phone pollsters using past vote weighting…
Would Blackpool have been different if a poll had not been suppressed? November 1st, the day Labour was planning for the general election, is probably a good moment to reflect on the amazing events of the past six weeks. And one element that nobody’s really focussed on is the impact of Observer decision not to publish on September 29th an Ipsos-Mori poll showing the Tories 13% behind. For if it had been the splash lead rather than what did appear…
What are the implications of the collapse of the anti-EU party? On June 10th 2004 in the last European elections, UKIP received 2.7 million votes and gained twelve seats in the European Parliament. Their national vote share of just under 17% put them in third place ahead of the Lib Dems and all the talk was of the party doing terrible damage to Michael Howard Conservatives in the ensuing general election. When that vote came, just eleven months later, the…
But the Tories take the hit for the LD surge After predicting on yesterday’s ComRes thread that the ICM October poll for the Guardian would report a 5% Tory lead I feel a bit of satisfaction that that indeed is what has come about. These are the shares with changes on the last survey from the pollster tkaen in the immediate aftermath of the Tory conference CON 40% (-3): LAB 35% (-1): LD 18% (+4) Also last week I was…