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Category: Polls

Backing for Darling in first budget poll

Backing for Darling in first budget poll

Results of a “quickie” Populus poll of 586 people on yesterday’s budget are just out on the Times website and shows broad public backing for the measures on drinking and motoring. The survey did not include a voting intention question and was almost certainly not past vote weighted. This is likely to have produced a smallish but significant nevertheless pro-Labour sample. This factor is important when judging findings like the one that “most voters do not think the Budget would…

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So what should Nick Clegg expect from the polls?

So what should Nick Clegg expect from the polls?

Will the week’s media spotlight have produced a higher LD share? Here’s a ballsy prediction that could fall flat on its face – the Populus poll for March that should be due out this evening will not show a reduction for the Lib Dems but will have the party holding its own or moving forward. On the face of it this would appear counter-intuitive given some of the savagings Nick Clegg has had to endure over the past few days…

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Why all the fuss over an issue that barely registers?

Why all the fuss over an issue that barely registers?

Does anybody out there care about EU matters? After last night’s big commons vote rejecting a referendum on the Lisbon treats it is perhaps worth looking at how all of this ranks in the public’s mind. For once again there’s strong polling evidence that it barely registers as an issue that voters care about. For after a period when the big political story has been Britain’s relationship with the EU the latest Ipsos-MORI monitor is out with, amongst other things…

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Should Hillary’s political obituaries be put on hold?

Should Hillary’s political obituaries be put on hold?

Could Texas and Ohio dramatically change the narrative? After an extraordinary and intensive onslaught on Barack Obama on a wide range of fronts there’s just an indication tonight that those who’ve been preparing Hillary’s political obituaries might have to put their drafts on hold. For when a range of polls move in the same direction in the final hours before an election then it’s normally an indication that something might be happening. And that’s been the news today on the…

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Do Labour figures show that the tide’s turned for Ken?

Do Labour figures show that the tide’s turned for Ken?

Were the results of a secret poll behind the Boris betting rush? Yesterday afternoon, while Labour was gathered in Birmingham for its spring conference, there was a big switch-over on the mayoral betting markets that now make Boris the odds-on favourite. For the talk at the conference was of Ken facing a major challenge suggesting to me that there might be another secret poll which they are keeping very quiet about. Tessa Jowell’s assertion that the “race this time is…

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Is Boris about to become favourite for Mayor?

Is Boris about to become favourite for Mayor?

As the chart, reflecting betting prices as implied probabilities, shows there has been an easing of Ken’s Mayoral election price and a tightening of Boris’s and most of this has happened in the past 36 hours. I don’t know what’s driving it. The last major news items were the opinion polls on Tuesday. On the Sporting Index spread market Boris has this morning been priced as the clear favourite. My only explanation is that Labour is holding its Spring Conference…

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Tories increase their YouGov lead by a point

Tories increase their YouGov lead by a point

But voters think the Speaker, Michael Martin, should resign The February survey by YouGov for the Daily Telegraph this morning suggests that public opinion is remaining pretty stable with hardly any movement on the last poll from the firm ten days ago. The figures with changes on the last survey from the poll ten days ago are: CON 40% (nc): LAB 33% (-1): LD 16% (nc) The figures mean that in every singly YouGov survey since Brown’s October U-turn over…

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Labour private poll: “Boris winning the 2nd prefs war”

Labour private poll: “Boris winning the 2nd prefs war”

The secret survey that shows Ken could be in trouble When on Tuesday Ken sought to counter the latest YouGov mayoral figures by revealing party private polling data he set off a disclosure process that has, for the first time I believe, allowed us to look at the full numbers from a Labour survey that was supposed to be secret. And with this election looking very tight a key factor will be how the second preferences split – will they…

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