Browsed by
Category: Polls

How did Gord become PM with this 06/07 polling baggage?

How did Gord become PM with this 06/07 polling baggage?

Was getting a coronation the political achievement of the decade? As another pollster, Populus, reports a double digit deficit for Labour let’s consider this morning the remarkable campaign a year ago that saw Gordon become his party’s leader and PM without having to face a contest. For in the year before the “handover” a vast body of polling evidence built up that Labour would do much worse with him as a leader than the party was already doing. The results…

Read More Read More

Now Populus reports a double digit Labour deficit

Now Populus reports a double digit Labour deficit

Are we now heading for a Conservative majority? As well as the Ken-Boris survey there’s also a Populus poll on national voting intentions in the Sunday Mirror. This records the following shares with comparisons on the last survey by the pollster nearly three weeks ago CON 40% (+1): LAB 30% (-3): LD 19% (+2) Looking at previous surveys from the firm on UKPollingreport these are the worst figures for Labour that we have ever seen. In February there was a…

Read More Read More

Ken moves ahead in non-BPC poll

Ken moves ahead in non-BPC poll

Will the pollster perform better than it did in Scotland? A new London survey tonight from a firm that is not listed as a member of the British Polling Council provides a big boost to Ken as he seeks to defend his mayoralty. The firm, MRUK, found first preference figures of Ken 45%: Boris 44%: Paddick 9%. After second preferences are taken into account Boris and Ken are on 50:50. The survey took place from April 7th to the 14th…

Read More Read More

London: The Pollsters vs The Punters vs PoliticsHome

London: The Pollsters vs The Punters vs PoliticsHome

Which is the best guide to the likely outcome? Just twelve days to go before more than five million Londoners get the chance to vote in an election that is being widely regarded as a proxy for the general election. Because it is in the capital and because of the massive national media coverage the winner of Britain’s single election will have an enormous impact on the overall political environment. The stakes are enormous: a Conservative win with Boris Johnson…

Read More Read More

Is Adam Boulton right about non-registered voters?

Is Adam Boulton right about non-registered voters?

Will his latest figures really hurt Ken? One interesting aspect of the London mayoral race that has been raised by Sky’s Adam Boulton is the proportion of adults who have not registered to vote in parts of London. He noted: “I’m told that when official figures are published next week by London Elects, the quango running the election, they will reveal that over two million Londoners have not registered to vote on May 1. That still leaves around five million…

Read More Read More

Should you be backing Boris again?

Should you be backing Boris again?

Is the trend with MORI really quite positive for him? After taking my profits in the mayoral betting last week the odds following last night’s debate have shifted enough for me to start risking some cash again. A price of 4/6, which has been available on Betfair, looks a fair value bet especially after reviewing the detail of the latest polling particularly from MORI. The firm has had three published surveys on the race and produces, effectively, four sets of…

Read More Read More

Is Ken onto a winner with climate change?

Is Ken onto a winner with climate change?

…or do the voters not really care? As regular visitors to the site will know one of my favourite polling tables each month is the response to the Ipsos-MORI “What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)” question. There are no prompts and the pollster has been asking it in the same way for more than thirty years. There are two questions – in the first respondents are asked to name THE most important issue…

Read More Read More

YouGov Boris lead cut in half in a week

YouGov Boris lead cut in half in a week

This week’s YouGov poll on the London Mayoral race has Boris’s lead before the second preference distribution down from 13% to 6% in a week. The margin is exactly the same for this measure as in yesterday’s MORI survey. The figures are: Boris 45% (-4): Ken 39% (+3):Paddick 12% (+2) Where YouGov and MORI diverge is over what happens to the second preferences. YouGov reports an 8% Boris margin while MORI had this at 2%. This is all in line…

Read More Read More