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Category: Polls

Will the Mayoral result resolve the YouGov row?

Will the Mayoral result resolve the YouGov row?

Punters still reluctant to bet on a Cameron majority Ever since Ken Livingstone sought to discredit the YouGov polling organisation after the firm’s February poll put him behind for the first time the result of next Thursday election is going to be about more than who runs London. It has become, also, about the confidence we can have in surveys from the online pollster and the conventional firms. This has become more the case this morning as the political world…

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YouGov poll has Labour down to 26%

YouGov poll has Labour down to 26%

Cameron’s Tories take an 18% lead The April YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph is just out and reports another decline in Labour’s share to just 26%. the figures are with comparisons on the last survey from the pollster two weeks ago CON 44% (nc): LAB 26% (-2): LD 17% (nc) The paper says that this is the biggest lead by the Tories since 1987. It comes after a week which saw the big reversal in Labour ICM ratings when…

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Should you bet on the poll that’s worst for Ken?

Should you bet on the poll that’s worst for Ken?

Will the “golden rule” apply again next week? So far four polling firms have produced surveys on the 2008 London Mayoral race and it looks as though each will be doing at least one further survey for publication in the next week. What’s great about this contest is that it’s about aggregate vote totals across London and we’ll be able to compare directly the performance of each polling firm with the actual result. In this election there is no hiding…

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What does Hillary need to do tonight?

What does Hillary need to do tonight?

Will she win by a big enough margin in Pennsylvania to stay in the race? It’s another US primary night on PB and I hope you’ll stay with us to share your news and insights. The voting will close at 1am UK time when we should iget news of the first exit polls. The critical thing tonight will be how both camps spin it. What percentages will define success or failure? A consensus seems to be emerging that if Obama…

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Is this the man who is always overstated by the polls?

Is this the man who is always overstated by the polls?

When a 48% polling lead became an actual 11.9%? My most profitable political wager of all time up to eight years ago was a spread bet that Ken would get less than 50% in first preference votes in the first London Mayoral contest. For all the signs were that Ken, then standing as an independent, was going to overwhelm his opponents by a staggering margin and many took it as read that he would get 50% on the first round….

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Hillary plays the Bin Laden card

Hillary plays the Bin Laden card

This is the ad that is running tonight on TV stations throughout Pennsylvania as Hillary seeks to ensure she secures the win in the primary tomorrow that will help keep her in the race. The latest polling is here. Mike Smithson

Will the happy times return to Number 10?

Will the happy times return to Number 10?

The April ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and reports a big reversal on last month. The figures which, unlike the chart from the paper, has comparisons with the last published ICM poll are: CON 39% (-4): LAB 34 (+2): LD 19% (+1) So instead of a poll suggesting a substantial Tory overall majority we are now back in hung parliament territory with Labour and the Tories competing for top spot on seats. This polling change could not…

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