Is YouGov vs Ipsos-MORI the other big battle in the London election? In the picture above are the men who are probably the best known pollsters in the country who, in their individual ways have made major contributions to the way political opinion is tested in the UK. And both of them are on collision course over the projected outcome of the London Mayoral election. On the left is Peter Kellner who was a political journalist specialising in polling who…
Well done Don The first preference shares BORIS 46% (up 2%) and KEN 35% (down 2). After second preference YouGov are saying it is 55% to 45%. This puts the internet pollster totally out of line with MORI and MRUK which are both reporting that Ken is in the lead. I cannot recall a time when the polls have been so out of line in a critical election. The YouGov figures are so emphatic that it is hard to see…
Is this market manipulation or good information? As site regulars will know the one act that will lead directly to a permanent ban from our discussion threads is to put forward deliberately false information that could move betting markets. Last night there was a big move back to Boris in the Mayoral betting after somebody calling themself “Don” posted this :-“I’m going to take my courage in my hands and pass on a tip from a pretty reliable source (nb…
Is this a delayed reaction to the MORI and MRUK polls? Yesterday morning I expressed surprise that the MORI poll had had so little impact on the mayoral betting markets. Overnight Saturday we had the MRUK survey, also showing Ken with a narrow lead, and at first the markets seemed to take it in their stride. But this evening there has been a sharp move from Boris to Ken and it appears possible that the incumbent could find himself the…
The information over-load continues With Thursday’s London Mayoral election seemingly on a knife-edge every little scrap of information could be helpful to those who are having a punt. The Sunday Times’s pollster, MRUK, is being particularly helpful and their Ivor Knox has just emailed me some information that I thought I ought to pass on. Before applying the turnout filter the first preference split had Ken leading by 45% to 42% After applying the filter which just to include those…
New pollster MRUK has Ken just 1% ahead With just five days to go before the London elections the new pollster, MRUK, has produced for the Sunday Times what we assume is its final survey and it shows the following first preference split with changes on last week – JOHNSON 43%(-1): LIVINGSTONE 44%(-1): PADDICK 9%(nc). After second preferences MRUK make it 51% to 49% for Ken. So the Ken first preference figure is dramatically up on the 36.9% that he…
A third poll has Labour slipping back Just six days after the publication of the Guardian’s April poll showing a big drop in the Tory lead to 5% there another survey from pollster out tonight which has a different picture. The ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph reports the following shares with comparisons on the earlier survey: CON 39% (nc): LAB 29% (-5): LD 20% (+1) So the big drop off in the Labour share has not moved to the…
…and a 60% turnout is projected Due to a series of cock-ups details of the latest trade union-funded poll by Ipsos-MORI have been taken off the pollster’s website but they were on long enough to pick up some key information. Ken’s first preference share projection was put at 41% which is way ahead of the 36.9% he got four years ago and the 39% that he achieved when he first swept into power in 2000. So for every SEVEN Londoners…