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Category: Polls

Are we heading for a Tory landslide or not?

Are we heading for a Tory landslide or not?

Will the upcoming polling round make us any the wiser? In the two weeks and two days since the Crewe and Nantwich by-election we have had just two national voting intention opinion polls and the fieldwork for both took place during school holiday periods which have, in the past, led to results being skewed. So the upcoming polling round, which hopefully should start with surveys for at least one of the Sunday papers and will certainly see the monthly Populus…

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Do the 212 “at risk” Labour MPs want a new leader?

Do the 212 “at risk” Labour MPs want a new leader?

What will YouGov do for Gord’s survival chances? The above is what happens when you key in the C47-L23-LD18 general election vote shares from today’s Daily Telegraph YouGov poll into the Anthony Wells commons seat calculator. If you do the same with the Martin Baxter calculator at Electoral Calculus you get even worse projections for Labour – CON 452: LAB 138: LD 32 seats. Martin’s website conveniently lists the outcome for every single seat in the country – something that…

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Is Alan Johnson Labour’s best hope?

Is Alan Johnson Labour’s best hope?

Johnson favoured over Miliband by PoliticsHome panel Andrew Rawnsley, at PoliticsHome, has announced the results of one of their Phi100 surveys on the leadership of the Labour Party. He writes: “Labour would have a better chance of winning the next election under a different leader. That’s the strong view of the PHI100, Britain’s most authoritative survey of inside and expert political opinion. Asked which Labour politician would maximise the party’s chances of holding on to power, less than one six…

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A delayed victory for polling transparency

A delayed victory for polling transparency

The BPC rules that Ken’s congestion charge poll must be released Just before I went on holiday the British Polling Council made a ruling on the case against Ipsos-MORI for failing to provide the full data on an opinion poll carried out for Transport for London on the congestion charge. This was highlighted here in February and was the first time that the council has had to hold a formal process over a alleged failure to follow its disclosure provisions….

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Will Labour’s big gamble pay off?

Will Labour’s big gamble pay off?

Can Gordon turn the ratings round? Nearly three days after the Crewe & Nantwich result the signs are this evening that there is no stomach within the Labour party for a leadership challenge and that the movement will stick with Gordon. Those leading cabinet ministers who have been named as possible replacements have made supportive statements and it is hard to see what could bring his leadership to a head. Ministers and MPs are gambling that the dramatic collapse of…

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C&N: Which supporters are most motivated to vote?

C&N: Which supporters are most motivated to vote?

Could the pollsters be understating the Tory margin? The Independent’s pollster, ComRes, have made available overnight the full data from their Crewe & Nantwich poll which is in this morning’s paper and is showing a Conservative lead of 13%. Reproduced above is a table showing responses on the turnout question the certainty of voting rated on a scale of 1 to 10 from those interviewed. The picture is the same as we have seen in many other polls – Tory…

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ComRes reports a 13% lead in Crewe & Nantwich

ComRes reports a 13% lead in Crewe & Nantwich

Updated 2145 CreweTV By election voting shares – CON 48%: LAB 35%: LD 12% A ComRes poll taken amongst voters in Crewe and Nantwich for the Independent is showing that the Tories are heading for a 13% lead. This is substantially bigger than the 8% that ICM had in their survey at the weekend for the News of the World. The first details came from Andrew Grice’s blog . What could be critical here is the timing of this latest…

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Now ICM records a Labour deficit

Now ICM records a Labour deficit

Is there anything that Brown can do to turn things round? The May ICM national voting intention survey for the Guardian is just out and records what is the firm’s biggest Labour deficit of modern times – and is in line with the trend of other recent polls. The figures, with changes on the last ICM poll at the end of April are: CON 41% (+2): LAB (-2): LD 22% (+2). The changes reflected in the chart above are from…

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