MORI: Half of 2005 Labour voters “less likely to do it again” A new poll by Ipsos-MORI sponsored by the Unison trade union has more bad news for Gordon as he prepares to celebrate his first year in Downing Street. No voting intention figures were included in the survey all though interviewees were asked if they voted Labour in 2005. In its commentary the pollster says: “Ipsos MORI’s survey for UNISON, shows that almost half (47%) of those who have…
Nearly three electors in five say they would vote for him A new Ipsos-MORI telephone poll for the Independent this morning has what seem to be contradictory conclusions over David Davis’s move last week. On the one hand the national survey found that respondents would give him strong support if they were able to vote in the forthcoming by-election. But on the issue of whether he was right or not there’s a different conclusion. In the poll carried out from…
Can Cameron rely on those who didn’t vote last time? In September 2007, when Labour was riding high and Gordon could do no wrong, I questioned several times whether the poll shares we were seeing were robust because so much of the “new” support for the party was coming from people who had not voted at the 2005 general election. As anybody with experience of on the ground campaigning knows the most reliable electors are those who have a record…
Mail on Sunday …and Labour MPs say they will support the Tory’s stand? An ICM for the Mail on Sunday taken on Friday of adults in Haltemprice and Howden, shows massive support for the area’s MP as he seeks to resign his seat and fight a by election over Gordon’s move to increase to six weeks the length of time suspects can be held without trial. The main findings are summarised in the panel above. Asked how they would vote…
Labour nudge up two points from their record low The second of the night’s opinion polls, from YouGov for the Sunday Times, shows a small improvement for Labour on the last survey from the firm at the end of May. The latest figures with changes on that poll are: CON 47% (nc): LAB 25% (+2): LD 18% (nc). The fieldwork took place on Thursday and Friday – important because it was on Thursday that David Davis made his big announcement….
Populus has Cameron’s Tories leading by 20% This is becoming so normal that it is hardly news any more – another devastating poll blow for Gordon Brown’s Labour government and this time from the firm that generally shows the party in a better light. The numbers from the June Populus poll for the Times are: CON 45% (+5): 25% (-4): LD 20% (+1). Fieldwork took place from Friday until Sunday so the party shares do not seem to have been…
How much credence should we give to polls two years before the day? There’s a great facility on the ICM website for those who want to check back on polling history. Just restricted to those commissioned by the Guardian, which is by far and away the longest media relationship in the UK industry, you can sort results how you like and, of course, check back on each monthly survey and compare it with the following general election. Just before Christmas…
Is ICM a further indication of a “sea-change” in opinion? It is a sign of the times that when news of the latest ICM poll started to emerge last night the terms used were simply that the Conservatives had “a healthy lead”. I assumed that meant a margin of perhaps 12-13% ahead and just a little bit better for Gord than the previous ICM low – a 14% Labour deficit – that we saw in the May Guardian poll. The…