Does Brown really have a chance of saving the day? There’s an interesting piece by Kevin Maguire of the Mirror quoting an as yet to be published article by Peter Kellner of YouGov suggesting that Labour might still have a chance. The arguments are ones we have seen before – governments, it is said recover from mid-term lows and we all know that the Tories need a vote margin of 6% just to be equal on seats and a 10%…
Should foreigners just keep out? A new poll for the BBC World Service poll shows that in all 22 countries surveyed, people wanted Obama to be the next President rather than McCain. The Democratic nominee was preferred by a four to one margin on average across the 22,000 people polled. But is this exactly the sort of thing that will do Obama harm? We all recall the Guardian’s crazy exercise in 2004 when readers were encouraged to send emails to…
What’s the point of ousting Gord if Labour would do no better? It seems an age ago, but it was only the end of July, that David Miliband produced his famous Guardian article that was seen as a challenge to Brown’s leadership. The Foreign Secretary denied it of course but the widespread assumption was that he was a laying down a marker for a future leadership challenge. Since then, until today, there has been no proper polling evidence about the…
Would this be in Labour’s best long-term interest? Another opinion poll overnight showing not one iota of improvement in Labour’s position and another month goes by eating into the precious time the party has to get it right before it is forced to face the voters. Labour’s situation is dire and it is hard to foresee the circumstances in which it can stop Cameron’s Conservatives getting a substantial majority. There is no positive indication anywhere – and there’s been nothing…
Are polls like this news any more? The August YouGov survey for the Daily Telegraph is out this morning and the figures are in the same broad territory that we have seen since the budget last March – Labour in dire trouble and the Tories in the mid or high 40s. The numbers according to the paper are those recorded in the panel above showing changes on the last survey by the firm a fortnight ago. There is a slight…
A guest slot by Bob Worcester – the founder of MORI (This is a specially adapted version for PB of an article produced by Bob Worcester for his new Vox Populi blogs on the Ipsos MORI site. The aim is to produce a monthly piece between now and the next election based on Bob’s personal experience of nearly 40 years conducting and observing polls and how they are reported) “Let’s look at the recordâ€, as the politicians say. Just this…
Or was the soaring price not a vote swinger after all? Until a few weeks ago when the cost of of a litre of diesel had reached the record high of £1.34 ministers and and a number of commentators were suggesting that this one of the big drivers behind Labour’s polling collapse. The view was that if the soaring world oil prices could come to an end and the price at the pumps started to decline then there would be…
Could Cameron really be heading for a 260 seat majority? One of the things I often write when talking about UK polling is that based on two decades of general elections, every single London mayoral race and every single by election where there has been polling the “golden rule” has applied. This says simply that the most accurate survey when tested against real votes has been the one that has had Labour in the least favourable position. So the seat…