How can he stop the seepage of support? The big trend in recent days from the White House race has been the move back to Obama in the polls after appears what appears now to have been a temporary blip following the Palin pick and the GOP convention aftermath. In the betting the latest Obama price suggests a 62% implied probability with McCain on 38%. Just over a week ago both contenders were heading towards evens. In the polls Obama…
Click on the panel to watch Have even Labour-leaners just given up on Brown? The picture above is the final screen-shot form the three-part Frank Luntz Newsnight focus group in Manchester which was shown last night. It shows how those involved responded when Luntz asked those who had just “given up on Gordon” to raise their hands. I didn’t do a count but it appeared that about four-fifths of the participants indicated their agreement – and that in a nutshell…
Why Labour should always assume the worst from the polls This is Deborah Mattinson – Labour’s polling advisor who was part of conference session at the weekend on the polls trying to make the case that Cameron has “..yet to seal the deal”. I don’t know about that but the lesson from polling history is that Labour’s default position should be that the most accurate poll is the one with the party in the least favourable position – what I…
What can we learn from the betting and polls of September 2007 Exactly a year ago – on September 22nd 2007 – Labour, like today was in conference in Manchester and all the talk was about the “coming election”. There were even suggestions that Brown might announce something in his speech – like this year taking place on the Tuesday. There was lots of excitement on the betting markets and I clipped the above from the Spreadfair spread betting exchange…
But will the polls be as wrong as they were in Glasgow East? A night of four polls all doing very different things has been finalised with an ICM survey in Glenrothes, scene of the upcoming by-election, which suggests that Labour is in for a hard fight. In the seat that adjoins Brown’s and where the party had a 10,600 majority at the general election ICM found that both Labour and the SNP were on 43% each. That’s fine except…
Labour only four points ahead of Nick Clegg’s party On top of the good news overnight from the Frank Luntz focus group there’s a big boost for the Lib Dems tonight in the September YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph. The figures are with changes on the last poll from the firm two weeks ago:- CON 44%(-2): LAB 24% (-3): LD 20% (+4) This is the highest Lib Dem figure from the internet pollster since November 2005 – the month…
(This is the second guest slot that Bob Worcester, the founder of MORI (now Ipsos-MORI) has produced for PB in which he reviews the polls from his experience of nearly 40 years conducting and observing polls and how they are reported.) “Brown doomed as Tories head for 330 majority†Have I got news for you, as they say, especially directed at the sub-editor on the Express who used the latest Ipsos MORI poll showing a 28% Conservative lead with the…
Doesn’t the latest focus group highlight Clegg’s central dilemma? Three years ago a Frank Luntz focus group on BBC2’s Newsnight so upset a number of Lib Dems on the site and elsewhere that there were formal complaints to the BBC and even suggestions that a conspiracy had taken place. Why it was argued – Luntz was a student at Oxford at the same time as Cameron! Well I guess they won’t complaining today for Nick Clegg was the surprise “winner”…