Will ID cards keep the Iraq switchers with the LDs? One of the great hopes which has sustained Labour during its recent bad times is that come the general election then many of the former supporters who voted Lib Dem in 2005 will return to the fold. For it will be recalled that this was the biggest voting dynamic in 2005. Much of Labour’s 6% decline on four years earlier could be put down to the large numbers who went…
How secure is Labour’s polling base? PB’s cartoonist, Marf of LondonSketchbook.com, has come up with another cracker which is probably not far off the mark in summing up the mood in Downing Street. For after being so far behind for so long Gord wouldn’t be human if he didn’t get a lift from another poll showing that Labour is getting quite close. He must be careful, however, not to see seen to be using the crisis for party political purposes….
CONSERVATIVES 40% (-1) LABOUR 36% (nc) LIB DEMS 14% (nc) Will this revive early election date speculation? A new YouGov poll that was carried out on Monday evening and throughout yesterday provides a lot of reassurance for Labour after the momentous statement by Chancellor Darling on Monday. The splits show almost most no change on the last survey from the firm and runs against much of the so called “informed” comment that we saw in the immediate aftermath of the…
Will the PBR make the media narrative a reality? It’s a measure of how completely potty the media has become in recent weeks that on the eve of the the PBR and all the talk of an early general election that there’s been an almost total news black-out on yesterday’s ICM showing the Tories on 42%, Labour on 31% with the Lib Dems scoring 19%. You would have thought that every little bit of polling data would have been devoured,…
And this is just a week of polling! At the end of last week, with the finalisation of the result from Missouri the spread firms finally settled the White House race electoral college votes markets which many of us had been playing for months. For me, having an average Obama buy position of 320 ECVS, it meant that I won the difference between the bet and the outcome (365 ECVS) multiplied by my stake level. Nice but it would have…
CONSERVATIVES 42% (-1) LABOUR 31% (+1) LIB DEMS 19% (+1) ICM reports an 11% Tory lead After all the election speculation following the non-past voted weighted MORI poll on Tuesday reports are coming in of a new ICM poll which puts the Tories 11% ahead. The main difference between ICM and MORI is that the former takes measures to ensure a politically balanced sample through past vote weighting. MORI doesn’t and as I was arguing on Wednesday the latest survey…
Do we expect further moves to Labour? As expected the latest Ipsos-MORI poll putting Labour just 3% behind has caused movement on the spread betting markets – the political betting arenas where you can win or lose whole piles of cash by trading the number of seats the parties will get at the general elecxtion as though they were stocks and shares. The latest spreads from from PB’s co-sponsor, Sporting Index are: CON 334-340: LAB 242-248: LD 42-45 seats. With…
Were there enough 2005 Lib Dems in the MORI sample? My apologies for the third post in succession on the Ipsos-MORI poll but it produced numbers that were so startling that it deserves further scrutiny. Yesterday it was all doom and gloom for the Lib Dems over the MORI 12% yet a close study of the data raises the question of whether were there enough 2005 Lib Dem supporters in the sample? It will be recalled that on May 5th…